Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II
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Thanks Spydertrader for your efforts in providing the video info. As I have never used "avi" files before; is there a preferred free player for this? microsoft player doesnt seem to have the video..
Took my first trade with ATHR when it hit DU of 600K on bloody friday as Stoch hit 80's. Daily charts for MACD and Stoch (triple bounces) appears to be curling up from oversold levels. Average cost of $21.50; so far so good (stops at $21.07)....
Good luck on monday everyone! (and thanks for any comments directed at my first trade).
Hello virgintrader,
Here is my analysis of your first trade. This is only my opinion so take it for what it is worth.
I have also taken trades like this too. Your entry looks like it is on the risky side. Please look at the chart I posted for more complete understanding.
I hope some of the more experienced Hershey traders will post their remarks too so we can all learn.
I sincerely hope the trade works out for you.
gooch87
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1070911"></img>
virgintrader,
I just want clarify that I think the entry was risky compared to waiting another day because the stock is in a confirmed down trend. I do not want to imply that this trade will not work out.
One way to mitigate the risk is to use smaller entry positions then add to it when things start to progress.
gooch87
I just want clarify that I think the entry was risky compared to waiting another day because the stock is in a confirmed down trend. I do not want to imply that this trade will not work out.
One way to mitigate the risk is to use smaller entry positions then add to it when things start to progress.
gooch87
ATHR setup
By the way I drew its channels, ATHR seems to be in a down trend (reversed its previous uptrend on 4/25 with a failure-to-traverse). It already had two traverses (green) in the red channel, and it seems to just have started its second retracement (purple).
Retracements require greater skills to trade. They're more difficult to recognize and define, and they're more volatile. I avoid them, and prefer to look for another stock that it's ready to start a new traverse (thrust).
If I traded this last traverse correctly, I would've entered around 24.5 - 25 (after the red channel point 3 was defined), and exited around 21.5 - 21 (at the left line of the red channel).
Hindsight ...
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1071013>
By the way I drew its channels, ATHR seems to be in a down trend (reversed its previous uptrend on 4/25 with a failure-to-traverse). It already had two traverses (green) in the red channel, and it seems to just have started its second retracement (purple).
Retracements require greater skills to trade. They're more difficult to recognize and define, and they're more volatile. I avoid them, and prefer to look for another stock that it's ready to start a new traverse (thrust).
If I traded this last traverse correctly, I would've entered around 24.5 - 25 (after the red channel point 3 was defined), and exited around 21.5 - 21 (at the left line of the red channel).
Hindsight ...
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1071013>
Thanks gooch87 for the coaching comments and Spydertrader for the info.
gooch87..no worries; i don't take comments the wrong way as i'm trying to learn this system. i should have clarified that stoch hit 80's using a 5day 15min chart (only free real time streaming chart i have courtesy of my broker) and when it hit DUV of 600K plus before 11:30est, i took the plunge with my initial position. i also thought that (which is not system related) since the general mkts were in the red and this held up well, a bounce should be in the making should the market recover on monday. It also bounced off the 100MVA....(.618 fib line too!).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ATHR&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62354758033
i was planning to add more to my position (since i "think" it hit FRV at EOD) but didnt hit the MACD and Stoch requirements so I didn't "double up". I'm still trying to understand FRVs' and the cycle scores and the entry conditions (i.e. for example on entry, it appears that one should be using 30 min charts and not the daily charts)....guess, finally, im tryin to put what i think i learned to test!
Again, I appreciate ALL the feedback and thanks in advance gooch87!
ATHR entry
If I were to trade this retracement, having already identified such a setup, I'd look for an entry on a lower time frame.
The 30 minute chart gave an entry signal early Friday, about 21.5, with a probable target of only 22.75. Retracements offer always a worse reward/risk ratio. I'd probably set my stop at 20.5, and size my position accordingly.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1071028>
If I were to trade this retracement, having already identified such a setup, I'd look for an entry on a lower time frame.
The 30 minute chart gave an entry signal early Friday, about 21.5, with a probable target of only 22.75. Retracements offer always a worse reward/risk ratio. I'd probably set my stop at 20.5, and size my position accordingly.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1071028>
Gandolph -- I'm also a beginner but looking at your chart I see the following danger areas:
- MACD is going down
- Increased volume on the last day = increased selling
- ST stoch going down
- LT stoch looks like is about to turn down too (below 80)
it looks like it "might" consolidate (retrace) to 21.30 before it goes back up.....
again, this is my own opinion...
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