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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II
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After identifying a potential FTT and entering the trade, price will sometimes retrace beyond the entry point prior to completion of the current bar. Does one exit, hold and hope or reverse? If so, when? Have I entered at a hitch, dip or stall by mistake? In this situation it is difficult to begin to identify a new FTT or FBO, even on the 2 min chart and I frequently find price has made an adverse move of perhaps 4 or 5 tics before reaching a decision. If I was to hold on to the trade until I next identified an FTT or FBO then I suspect that the potential losses due to adverse price movement would be even greater. I have tried unsuccessfully to utilise pro rata volume to judge the conviction behind an adverse move but this does not address the issue of successfully identifying an FTT in the first place. My train of thought is usually something like âIs price doing what it should do if I have correctly identified the FTT?â If the answer is no, then I exit. Would it be better to reverse and then exit if price moves adversely against the new position, resulting in two small losses, or reverse yet again and risk whipsaw?
Quote from Bearbelly:
Heres something I have found that helps quite a bit. Below the excel prv I have the last two fiveminute bars on a Quotetracker chart. These are what QT calls pressure bars. They show the percentage of trades going off at the ask vs. the bid and help to get an idea of whats going on. The last bar is the 2:00 pm bar and you can see that most of the action is on the ask indicating a possible reversal. Like anything else it takes a bit of practice to use them because at times its a contrary indicator as when most of the trades are going of at the ask but price is not moving up.
The times where they are contrary, you have to use the DOM. Every single charting program out there, including the tick sensitive one, have screwed this up.
Here's a quick synopsis since I can't dig too deep into this given your posting history and the hound trolls that usually follow along.
BID_SIZE = 2500: ASK_SIZE = 750...
50 SHORT contracts get executed...
BID_SIZE = 2450: ASK_SIZE = 750...
50 LONG contracts get executed...
BID_SIZE = 2450: ASK_SIZE = 700...
Your indicator will read ZERO after the two transactions. However, your DOM is CLEARLY frontrunning the information on your PressureBar. Rather than dive into the intricacies, the trick would be to have a pressurebar that relates the executed transaction size to the respective DOM size. In other words, taking 50 from the ASK side is more telling than the 50 that is being taken from the BID side. This is what a few of us KNOW as the MINORITY RESULT (ie. the immediate right side of any market)! Personally, at this level of fine-tuning, I wind up monitoring 3 things, TWO PAIR, DOM SIZES, and INCR/DECR SIZE characteristics. My two pair is the CONTEXT for keeping the perspective in synch. Because TWO PAIRS can be hyper, I want to get off the fine resolution ASAP so as to not overanalyze. What you will find is that, in the majority of TWO PAIRS (ie. more than 80% of them), the right side of the two pair is the MINORITY. When you watch the two pair, it is a hot potato type of interaction. Eventually, one of the PAIR choses to find a new partner to play hot potato with. This MINUTE change in sentiment is only seen on the DOM. I KNOW a change of partner is eminent when I get DRY UP on the DOM SIZES. This means on the DOM, I monitor the OPPOSITE of what's happening on VOLUME. I could go on with this post but it's not apparent as to whether anyone would understand it...
MAK
Thank you Mako. I am a fan of yours. I love your prv thingy. I am watching DOM but have not made the connection yet but I will. Jack will forgive me eventually.
edit: I have read this thing about ten times. You guys are in a different dimension.
Quote from makosgu:
The times where they are contrary, you have to use the DOM. Every single charting program out there, including the tick sensitive one, have screwed this up.
Here's a quick synopsis since I can't dig too deep into this given your posting history and the hound trolls that usually follow along.
BID_SIZE = 2500: ASK_SIZE = 750...
50 SHORT contracts get executed...
BID_SIZE = 2450: ASK_SIZE = 750...
50 LONG contracts get executed...
BID_SIZE = 2450: ASK_SIZE = 700...
Your indicator will read ZERO after the two transactions. However, your DOM is CLEARLY frontrunning the information on your PressureBar. Rather than dive into the intricacies, the trick would be to have a pressurebar that relates the executed transaction size to the respective DOM size. In other words, taking 50 from the ASK side is more telling than the 50 that is being taken from the BID side. This is what a few of us KNOW as the MINORITY RESULT (ie. the immediate right side of any market)! Personally, at this level of fine-tuning, I wind up monitoring 3 things, TWO PAIR, DOM SIZES, and INCR/DECR SIZE characteristics. My two pair is the CONTEXT for keeping the perspective in synch. Because TWO PAIRS can be hyper, I want to get off the fine resolution ASAP so as to not overanalyze. What you will find is that, in the majority of TWO PAIRS (ie. more than 80% of them), the right side of the two pair is the MINORITY. When you watch the two pair, it is a hot potato type of interaction. Eventually, one of the PAIR choses to find a new partner to play hot potato with. This MINUTE change in sentiment is only seen on the DOM. I KNOW a change of partner is eminent when I get DRY UP on the DOM SIZES. This means on the DOM, I monitor the OPPOSITE of what's happening on VOLUME. I could go on with this post but it's not apparent as to whether anyone would understand it...
MAK
edit: I have read this thing about ten times. You guys are in a different dimension.
Quote from makosgu:
... Personally, at this level of fine-tuning, I wind up monitoring 3 things, TWO PAIR, DOM SIZES, and INCR/DECR SIZE characteristics. My two pair is the CONTEXT for keeping the perspective in synch. Because TWO PAIRS can be hyper, I want to get off the fine resolution ASAP so as to not overanalyze. What you will find is that, in the majority of TWO PAIRS (ie. more than 80% of them), the right side of the two pair is the MINORITY. When you watch the two pair, it is a hot potato type of interaction. Eventually, one of the PAIR choses to find a new partner to play hot potato with. This MINUTE change in sentiment is only seen on the DOM. I KNOW a change of partner is eminent when I get DRY UP on the DOM SIZES. This means on the DOM, I monitor the OPPOSITE of what's happening on VOLUME. I could go on with this post but it's not apparent as to whether anyone would understand it...
MAK
This really sounds intriguing. Could use please define PAIR and PARTNER as used within your context here?
Also, if I do an ET search under author, will I find previous discussions from you on this topic, Mak? I ask first, only to know beforehand that a search will indeed be productive, considering your 900+ post history. Thnx ...
Thanks MAK!!!!
2007 and the new threads will flesh out this stuff.
The "turning" of turning points, topically, will come about as and when it is possible to corral the troops. The chat room is making fine strides to warm up.
Right now that isn't going to happen. After we have had the five days in Tucson, I believe the time spent will allow us to be very firm about what is what for getting this stuff down.
The new threads will be such that hammering away at grasping the essential picture will begin to prevent strays from keeping fluff in the limelight.
A person really does not have a choice deal in supposed luxury at the expense of ignoring the elephants in the room that we speak of.
I am hoping, as well, that little or no time is spent in defusing tangential stuff. The main event is to "grow". What is being grown is making money. What makes money is people who are knowledgable, skilled and can acquire experience day after day.
Your comment here is a terrific one. What people get to see is an informed response that just goes in a focussed manner to something that is not going to be easily handled because of the breadth requirement that helps on the in between levels that exist from the question to the answer.
How a person gets to "know" is through a process that involves experiencing a proces of going along a path.
Because, so far, most object to using a quality path, they get to "soak" in the place they are spending energy and time establishing.
No one is shelling anyone so skip building the foxholes for a while.
As I see a person draw four or five conclusions, each of which take him astray, I feel then maybe sometime somewhere that person may want to just drop "it" for a while and then consder being open to what is being suggested. What is being suggested is something like this: please do, for a while, what s being suggested. If you do, then you get to grow. If you keep doing otherwise, then we get to wait for you to grow.
Otherwise is a word that related to what we are not talking about. In training sessions in other fields I occassionally ask a person to not do anything for a period of time (measured often in seconds). I am asking the person to be "empty", to not be "operating" in any way. He is not going to be empty. He is going to figure out why I want him to be empty. I mean it; try to not do anything for a while.
How will we ever get peopole to grow by participating in ways we suggest. It is going to be very difficult.
We had a hard session the last PhD meeting. The topic was how did you do it way back then? the purpose was pure and very thorough. How did I do it way back when. When a phone was part of it and the data was just nothing almost.
The pure growing with just price and volume is whee to hang out and gain experience. It is crude and at the same time pure because it lays a foundation for performance and excellence.
They knew at some point that I had the number dialed and my finger was in the hook through the hole in the last number. This just means that I was not "hanging" live on a phone when not needing the conncetion. It meant when I WAS on the phone there was a reason to execute and get it right.
We are starting with an approach in 2007 that is in the interesets of all participants. We have your interests at heart and we are requesting that you consider participating as smoothly as possible. We know how ET works and we are not going to think it will be different for this one more time.
We write daily all day long. We search we cut and paste
We have four books going down concurrently. Books are only references, however. The first thread I rewrote went from 1200 text pages to 402 after added in illustrations. I am not allowed to make web references as a condition of not being banned again.
I know that what we are providingas support is not what peole want most of the time. We, on the other hand, are tying to make this work for a lot of people by having a lot of experts to help them. Getting experts is what we do best.
If it is possible try to go with the flow. The time, necessary, has been spent to convey to you that we are helpful. We have withstood a lot of things here from all kinds of persons.
2007 and the new threads will flesh out this stuff.
The "turning" of turning points, topically, will come about as and when it is possible to corral the troops. The chat room is making fine strides to warm up.
Right now that isn't going to happen. After we have had the five days in Tucson, I believe the time spent will allow us to be very firm about what is what for getting this stuff down.
The new threads will be such that hammering away at grasping the essential picture will begin to prevent strays from keeping fluff in the limelight.
A person really does not have a choice deal in supposed luxury at the expense of ignoring the elephants in the room that we speak of.
I am hoping, as well, that little or no time is spent in defusing tangential stuff. The main event is to "grow". What is being grown is making money. What makes money is people who are knowledgable, skilled and can acquire experience day after day.
Your comment here is a terrific one. What people get to see is an informed response that just goes in a focussed manner to something that is not going to be easily handled because of the breadth requirement that helps on the in between levels that exist from the question to the answer.
How a person gets to "know" is through a process that involves experiencing a proces of going along a path.
Because, so far, most object to using a quality path, they get to "soak" in the place they are spending energy and time establishing.
No one is shelling anyone so skip building the foxholes for a while.
As I see a person draw four or five conclusions, each of which take him astray, I feel then maybe sometime somewhere that person may want to just drop "it" for a while and then consder being open to what is being suggested. What is being suggested is something like this: please do, for a while, what s being suggested. If you do, then you get to grow. If you keep doing otherwise, then we get to wait for you to grow.
Otherwise is a word that related to what we are not talking about. In training sessions in other fields I occassionally ask a person to not do anything for a period of time (measured often in seconds). I am asking the person to be "empty", to not be "operating" in any way. He is not going to be empty. He is going to figure out why I want him to be empty. I mean it; try to not do anything for a while.
How will we ever get peopole to grow by participating in ways we suggest. It is going to be very difficult.
We had a hard session the last PhD meeting. The topic was how did you do it way back then? the purpose was pure and very thorough. How did I do it way back when. When a phone was part of it and the data was just nothing almost.
The pure growing with just price and volume is whee to hang out and gain experience. It is crude and at the same time pure because it lays a foundation for performance and excellence.
They knew at some point that I had the number dialed and my finger was in the hook through the hole in the last number. This just means that I was not "hanging" live on a phone when not needing the conncetion. It meant when I WAS on the phone there was a reason to execute and get it right.
We are starting with an approach in 2007 that is in the interesets of all participants. We have your interests at heart and we are requesting that you consider participating as smoothly as possible. We know how ET works and we are not going to think it will be different for this one more time.
We write daily all day long. We search we cut and paste
We have four books going down concurrently. Books are only references, however. The first thread I rewrote went from 1200 text pages to 402 after added in illustrations. I am not allowed to make web references as a condition of not being banned again.
I know that what we are providingas support is not what peole want most of the time. We, on the other hand, are tying to make this work for a lot of people by having a lot of experts to help them. Getting experts is what we do best.
If it is possible try to go with the flow. The time, necessary, has been spent to convey to you that we are helpful. We have withstood a lot of things here from all kinds of persons.
Quote from REB:
I would like to get online; how would I do this?
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