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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Quote from dkm:
At what point is it possible to identify an FTT?
(a) do we wait for the break of the end of the bar?
(b) do we attempt to identify during the formation of the bar?
Option (a) is the clearest but will often lead to multiple small losses (whipsaw), particularly in the event of congestion or the occurrence of outside bars
Option (b) seems to be the preferred approach but without clear criteria to make the decision, correct identification is very difficult to do with any consistency. If my understanding is correct, clues should be gleaned from pro rata volume and the 2 min YM but the âah-haâ experience is yet to occur. With an intrabar decision I appreciate that the probability of correct identification is reduced but without clear criteria the decision becomes little more than a guess. I would be grateful for comments on how to resolve this dilemma.
If you choose option (b) and the identified FTT fails Spydertrader says to simply reverse back into the original direction. Presumably one also deletes the FTT annotation from the chart as well and perhaps relabels it as an HVS or stall, etc. This method rocks !!
Spyder, thanks for your attempt to help someone who doesn't seem to get it. my scan showed some of your universe but not others. let me post my understanding of this procedure.
1. at stocktables scan for 100 stocks-
i entered rs> 90
eps>80
$ 10.--50.
sort by vol. change. i got 110 stocks
for the bottom list i wrote down the first 10 stocks i encountered
going up the list with > 200k vol. i did not consider whether or not they had a positive price gain.
for the top list, i wrote down the first 10 stocks i encountered with a positive price gains, paying no attention to the volume
for the middle list i picked the first five above the 0 line with > 200k vol. and the first five below the 0 line with >200k vol. i paid no attention to price activity. does this describe the correct action? the difference in your universe and mine may be accounted for by the difference in our EPS.
1. at stocktables scan for 100 stocks-
i entered rs> 90
eps>80
$ 10.--50.
sort by vol. change. i got 110 stocks
for the bottom list i wrote down the first 10 stocks i encountered
going up the list with > 200k vol. i did not consider whether or not they had a positive price gain.
for the top list, i wrote down the first 10 stocks i encountered with a positive price gains, paying no attention to the volume
for the middle list i picked the first five above the 0 line with > 200k vol. and the first five below the 0 line with >200k vol. i paid no attention to price activity. does this describe the correct action? the difference in your universe and mine may be accounted for by the difference in our EPS.
Quote from dkm:
At what point is it possible to identify an FTT?
(a) do we wait for the break of the end of the bar?
(b) do we attempt to identify during the formation of the bar?
Akin to driving a car, a trader needs to anticipate into the future. Using your mind's eye, project the chart pattern a single bar ahead. What do you see? Now, try anticipating a few bars ahead. Use the market signals to confirm or invalidate the hypothesis created in the mind's eye. Over time, practice turns to proficiency and you begin to almost 'see' the future. As the next bar develops in real time, you determine if price is following your hypothesis or not. This practice will lead to additional wash trades, however, it also brings you into trades significantly earlier than 'waiting' until the next bar closes.
Back to the driving example. While driving down a road, you notice a car waiting at a stop sign up ahead - waiting to cross the road on which you currently travel. When you notice the car begin to creep forward, do you not anticipate what you will do should the vehicle continue to creep forward into your lane? Of course you do. You might even pull your foot off the accelerator for a moment or even hit the break pedals well in advance of the car actually pulling out into your path.
The same thing works in trading. Anticipating the market's next move, provides plenty of opportunity for success. Just as you had to train yourself to drive on 'autopilot' while learning to drive. So too, does one need to do the same with 'seeing' the FTT as early as possible.
- Spydertrader
Quote from REB:
Would you explain a HVS, EW and an 8-Ball?
HVS = High Volatility Stall
EW & 8-ball = EllisWyatt & 8-ball - two traders who requested I highlight areas on the ES chart discussed in the ET Chatroom.
Quote from REB:
As I understand it two signals to trade (there may be others) are a FTT (Failure to Traverse) and a FBO (Failed Break Out). Is this correct?
No. for now, only trade the FTT's
Quote from REB:
On a 1-2-3 moving down, a FTT would be a failure of a leg to reach the 2 line. This would be a call for a long trade. Am I correct or incorrect here?
If by 'second line,' you mean the left trend line (bottom line) then yes, you have it correct.
Quote from REB:
On a 1-2-3 moving down, a FBO would be a failure of a leg to breach the 1-3 line. This would be a call for a short trade. Am I correct or incorrect here?
Correct in your evaluation, but beginner's exit on an FBO and wait for another FTT.
- Spydertrader
Quote from restan:
does this describe the correct action? the difference in your universe and mine may be accounted for by the difference in our EPS.
You have correctly followed procedure. Nicely done. The differences between your Universe and mine stem from 2 things - 1. My list is much older and contains stocks which made it in long ago. 2. I used different values for EPS.
Keep up the great work.
- Spydertrader
Sometimes referred to as 'the wall' of contracts, notice the imbalance on the DOM right at the point where price briefly headed south. I have highlighted this area at the 14:25 bar on the chart (soon to be posted) below.
Right side T$S has all contracts added. Left side T&S I have filtered for 50 contracts (or more).
Qcharts Platform.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1295940>
Right side T$S has all contracts added. Left side T&S I have filtered for 50 contracts (or more).
Qcharts Platform.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1295940>
Attachments
Spydertrader, thanks a lot for all your work. I would never have been able to get all this without your help. Yet I am still only in the middle of the first journal. However, i thought I might read along here as well as I have a few weeks off now where I can devote my time to this.
BTW, is your watchlist consiting of stocks booted out of your final universe for failing to keep up 5 cycles of 20%, or am I missing something?
Thank You
BTW, is your watchlist consiting of stocks booted out of your final universe for failing to keep up 5 cycles of 20%, or am I missing something?
Thank You
Quote from belavia:
BTW, is your watchlist consisting of stocks booted out of your final universe for failing to keep up 5 cycles of 20%, or am I missing something?
The Daily Watchlist in Journal One consists of stocks we want to monitor the following market day. We monitor these stocks looking for price and volume break outs.
Keep reading through the Journals, and take good notes as you go. As I am sure others can comment, you'll learn quite a bit if you take your time in an effort to build a strong foundation of knowledge.
Good Journey to you.
- Spydertrader
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