Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II

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Heading out for a long weekend of poker at a Casino about 3 hours north of here. Anybody in the area, feel free to stop by for a cocktail or two. Until then, enjoy the weekend everybody. I'll answer any questions posted upon my return.

Many thanks to TheNewGuy for posting his Hershey Options strategy above.

- Spydertrader
 
Spydertrader,

In your previous journel you were working on developing a DU formula. At that time you were using three. Can you describe the Jack Hershey eyeball method? I saw references to it but never fould a description. Also, is there a relatively simple method of determining DU?

Your previous journel help me to get started understanding the Jack Hershey method.

Thanks,

dhammer
 
Quote from dhammer:

In your previous journel you were working on developing a DU formula. At that time you were using three. Can you describe the Jack Hershey eyeball method? I saw references to it but never fould a description. Also, is there a relatively simple method of determining DU?

Your previous journel help me to get started understanding the Jack Hershey method.
More...

I'm glad you found the Previous Journal helpful in your efforts to understand Jack Hershey and his methods. Although I have tested many variations of automated Dry Up Volume calculation, I have settled on using the method described in Hershey Equities Rank v. 3.0.0.

Within the Oddiduro Thread, Jack outlines how he arrives at Dry Up Volume - simply by 'eyeballing' bulked charts using the clearstation.com web site. A review of that discussion might help improve your understanding.

I hope that helps.

- Spydertrader
 
I'm not sure if this is appropriate or not, but I thought I'd post a real-time (well, would have been real time had I not dropped the ball) example of the buy-puts shorting play I discussed earlier.

NGPS signalled an entry this morning, and was confirmed by the MACD, Stoch and my take on the general trend of the market. I bought one contract (QAZWF - delta of -1) at 6.70. The spread currently is 6.50-6.90, kinda wide but I was lucky enough to catch one of the last 6.70's offered before it moved up. Right now the trade is at break even, and I will most likely bail at 6.50 if the bid starts to look thin.

I don't see any major support anytime before the last big bottom on a 30 min chart, somewhere around 22.20 or so.... although I will be watching to see how it travels through the more minor support at 23.20 (or so), should I be fortunate enough to have this trade move my way.

- The New Guy
 
Well, NGPS looks like a dud and I'll be getting out at the best price I can find before the close.

Spyder, was NGPS on your list today? If so, did you short it as well?

Thanks,

- The New Guy
 
Quote from thenewguy:

Spyder, was NGPS on your list today? If so, did you short it as well?
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Thanks for posting your Hershey Options Trades. I have no doubt many found the information useful. I too had NGPS on my list for today. I even went as far to have a limit order of $24.51 (long) sitting awaiting a fill. Of course, I never received a fill price. After some analysis of the NGPS price action, I anticipated a short signal occurring at the $24.06 USD price point, and a continual short bias down to $23.43 USD. Even though my analysis proved correct, I unfortunately allowed my long bias with respect to NGPS to influence my decision. As a result, I ignored the signals in front of me and failed to take the short signal.

I did take two trades today (KNDL and CMCO). Even though I lost money on the KNDL False Break Out (FBO), the CMCO trade put a few dollars in my pocket taking some of the sting out of the KNDL loss. Hopefully, the rest of your day resulted in some profits.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Thanks for posting your Hershey Options Trades. I have no doubt many found the information useful. I too had NGPS on my list for today. I even went as far to have a limit order of $24.51 (long) sitting awaiting a fill. Of course, I never received a fill price. After some analysis of the NGPS price action, I anticipated a short signal occurring at the $24.06 USD price point, and a continual short bias down to $23.43 USD. Even though my analysis proved correct, I unfortunately allowed my long bias with respect to NGPS to influence my decision. As a result, I ignored the signals in front of me and failed to take the short signal.

I did take two trades today (KNDL and CMCO). Even though I lost money on the KNDL False Break Out (FBO), the CMCO trade put a few dollars in my pocket taking some of the sting out of the KNDL loss. Hopefully, the rest of your day resulted in some profits.

- Spydertrader
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Personally, I found it very tough to get a read on the market this morning. Everytime I thought it was trending down, it corrected. NGPS was giving me mixed signals and in hindsight, I probably should not have taken the trade due to that. The MACD and Stoch was encouraging at the time of the signal, however. I am still in the NGPS "short" because of a datafeed issue right at the close (go figure), but the meltdown of the SPY's was a bit of a consolation. We'll see how it turns out tomorrow.

KNDL was indicated to me, but I wasn't directly in front of my computer when it was indicated, and I wasn't comfortable with it when I got back so I didn't take it. Turns out I got lucky with that one. Interestingly enough, CMCO wasn't on my list today, even though it's in my final universe list. Was that some sort of variation on the system, or am I missing something?

Thanks,

- The New Guy
 
Quote from thenewguy:

Interestingly enough, CMCO wasn't on my list today, even though it's in my final universe list. Was that some sort of variation on the system, or am I missing something?
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CMCO appeared on the Hotlist today and had been trending downward over the last week. CMCO had a score of zero as well. Since Jack often takes his trades from the Hotlist, I thought I might give it a try as well. I've made a few trades over the last few weeks trying to anticipate price increases with Hotlist stocks. When price started to move higher on CMCO, I entered into a position and received a fill price of $22.07 USD. I plan to hold these shares for a few days to see what happens.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

CMCO appeared on the Hotlist today and had been trending downward over the last week. CMCO had a score of zero as well. Since Jack often takes his trades from the Hotlist, I thought I might give it a try as well. I've made a few trades over the last few weeks trying to anticipate price increases with Hotlist stocks. When price started to move higher on CMCO, I entered into a position and received a fill price of $22.07 USD. I plan to hold these shares for a few days to see what happens.

- Spydertrader
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Ah, very nice. Glad I didn't do something wrong then!

Congrats on a good trade!

- The New Guy
 
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