SPY vs SPY

[Rams Fan]

Santa rally

Santa rally isn't scheduled to start until Christmas, with a market bottom either the trading day before or the trading day after.

So that post is meant to be a possible forecast, and not meant to reflect the recent selling pressure.

Santa rally is usually a non-occurrence during bear market. A notable exception was 2018 during the Fed's last tightening cycle with the Christmas Eve massacre being the almost bottom. The market made an ever so lower low the day after and the rally was then on.

Fed Liquidity Dry Up, assume crash positions

It is possible that the market unwinds what remains of the October - December rally over the next 5 trading days.

QQQ's really didn't participate and would be the first to undercut their October lows. Dow showed relative strength and the low might be in for this index. S&P's should make a lower low and then the new bull begins.

 

[deaddog]

Santa rally isn't scheduled to start until Christmas, with a market bottom either the trading day before or the trading day after.

Is it really a Santa rally if it doesn't rally into Christmas?
I wouldn't expect anything on volume over the holidays.

 

[Overnight]

Is it really a Santa rally if it doesn't rally into Christmas?
I wouldn't expect anything on volume over the holidays.

The traditional description of the Santa Rally is a December month that ends green. But the technical description of it is as was posted before. From first trading day after X-Mas to 2 days after New Years.

 

[Rams Fan]

Is it really a Santa rally if it doesn't rally into Christmas?
I wouldn't expect anything on volume over the holidays.

"Santa rally" refers to Chrstmas Eve through first part of January.

 

[deaddog]

"Santa rally" refers to Chrstmas Eve through first part of January.

I didn't know that Obviously!!
I'd call that a New Years Rally but what do I know.

 

[Rams Fan]

I'd call that a New Years Rally but what do I know.

I guess the idea is "look what Santa brought us!"

Last 5 trading days of Dec and first 2 of January based on statistics. I think Yale Hirsch of The Stock Trader's Almanac first coined the phrase. I'm not certain of that, however.

The contemporary financial press has cheapened the concept as they do everything of value that they touch.

Still, that gif of the bear knocking Santa to the ground was funny, don't you think?

 

[deaddog]

Still, that gif of the bear knocking Santa to the ground was funny, don't you think?

Ya I can identify with that as I get the odd black bear in my back yard.

 

[Overnight]

...

Still, that gif of the bear knocking Santa to the ground was funny, don't you think?

Totally apropos.

 

[Rams Fan]

The chart doesn’t look the same at all.
I disagree with this viewpoint.

We had a triple top on the daily,
VS We’ve been making higher highs / lows

We now have a double top on the daily. Best way to suss out what I am suggesting is to
distinguish what I call swing trends from the main pull and other would maybe use the terms "intermediate trend" vs "long-term trend."

Black Highs (H) and Lows (L) are swing pivots in the current long pull. The red H's and L's the most recent long swing trend.

I trade both, and I use both SPY and futures to do so. Eventually a long swing trend trade is going to break out and show that the main pull is now up. At that point I close the main pull shorts and that account will become the swing trade account, while II will hold my swing trend longs as my new core long pull position.

In just three trading days SPY has retraced nearly half of the 43 trading day rally out of the October 13th low.

It could easily undercut that low by Friday of this week (5 trading days). If it does, perhaps Santa shows up and brings us a rally during the final trading days of this year and the first few of 2023. That rally could spark a change in the long-term pull.

 

[Rams Fan]