SPY TRIPLE TOP - I just bought some puts.

Quote from Maverickz:

The trade has some merit but I think it's a bit premature. Looking at a 6month chart, if you draw channel lines for the last 6 months you see a definite down trending channel and it's at the top of the channel now and could head down. How far down? If you draw another channel from about Mar 7th until now you see a shorter term up trending channel. Which is currently about the middle of this channel I could see a pullback to about 134-135ish. The big move will happen near April 17th when it will be forced to choose WHICH channel to follow...the longer term downward or the shorter term upward.

Right now I think a Straddle might be a better move or just wait until it decides which channel to follow.

I don't have Photoshop where I am right now or I'd post my chart.
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Ok now that I am home here is the chart I was talking about. When the price breaks out of that box you will have a pretty good idea what direction it is going to head.

<img src="http://www.fantasydaytraders.com/eqpics/SP6mo.jpg">
 
Quote from jackstone54:

Look at the chart. Spy bottomed twice and it appears there is resistance going through 138. If it cant make it through 138, then its going to turn around hard on us. I bought some puts just now.

This isnt really a triple top, but its similiar in the fact that the index cant make it through on the third time during consolidation.

This might be a Feb 2007 all over again. Remember what is approaching and that is May where there is classic weakness. If we cant rally from here, then the Spy will skid down to 115 in a heartbeat...
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I bought 137 puts on Friday based on a similar analysis than yours. Got stopped today intraday just to see it moving my way the final few hours. Problem was wrong size (for a position) and unfortunately not much time left to expiration. Nevertheless after SPY showing more weakness I am all in again.
 
Just looked at the economic calendar. We will start off tommorrow with a horrible new home sales report that will make the headlines.

Then we will receive a further pounding with FOMC minutes that will reveal some tragic tale telling us about recession and just how bad the economy is.

Finally, we'll end out the day with the SPY selling off strong into the close with Cramer going nuts on tv.

Perfect...
 
What, did you all forget about our 400 point Tuesday rallies? lol.

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see more green this week, as next week is bank numbers. Bulls might be taking next week off. I'm short the market so I can only hope.
 
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