Spy Pin 107

[volente_00]

Quote from atticus:

I am not going to get into it with you again. I could've done the same by using the atm straddle on August 3rd, but I am under no delusion that it's predictive of anything.

We're 30 days out... provide the high and low now, or plz stfu.

LOL


Put your sept spy straddle on at 107 right now with that 3 % premium on each side and see what happens.



104 - 110


100 - 115 expanded


Being september I doubt we would reach the higher end on the expanded range.


I'm not an option guru like you but I have an edge that works for me even if it is to simpilistic for a great mind like yours.

 

[atticus]

Quote from volente_00:

LOL


Put your sept spy straddle on at 107 right now with that 3 % premium on each side and see what happens.



104 - 110


100 - 115 expanded


Being september I doubt we would reach the higher end on the expanded range.


I'm not an option guru like you but I have an edge that works for me even if it is to simpilistic for a great mind like yours.

101.47 to 112.87

That's my prediction (but it's not really mine).

So you're saying we'll stay in a 15% range? Wow, that's going out on a limb!

 

[volente_00]

Quote from atticus:

101.47 to 112.87

That's my prediction (but it's not really mine).

So you're saying we'll stay in a 15% range? Wow, that's going out on a limb!

It is really to early for sept OE for them to give any indication. 2 to 3 weeks from expiration is most accurate for me.


104 to 110


Being september we could move below 104 to suck in put premium but i dont see us hitting the expanded high side.


So you think 5% +- from 107.


BTW here is what those worthless aug spy options told me this morning

Quote from volente_00:

high probability we close above 65 cash

 

[atticus]

Quote from volente_00:

It is really to early for sept OE for them to give any indication. 2 to 3 weeks from expiration is most accurate for me.


104 to 110


Being september we could move below 104 to suck in put premium but i dont see us hitting the expanded high side.


So you think 5% +- from 107.


BTW here is what those worthless aug spy options told me this morning

65 cash? We only traded to 64!

 

[rallydog]

Quote from atticus:

No, it really isn't. It was, like 20 years ago. The volume in the options is so small relative to the volume in the underlying.

I think what you're saying is the effect is small. What I'm trying to say, but failed to elaborate is, the effect to the extent that it exists is due to gamma trading and not a conspiracy of market makers, which is what some believe.

 

[atticus]

Quote from rallydog:

I think what you're saying is the effect is small. What I'm trying to say, but failed to elaborate is, the effect to the extent that it exists is due to gamma trading and not a conspiracy of market makers, which is what some believe.

I find an old post I wrote on the mechanics of local-pinning, but couldn't believe what an a**hole I was in the reply. Anyway, you're correct.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from atticus:

65 cash? We only traded to 64!

you let them bulls scare you out of that swing short?


:eek:

 

[atticus]

Quote from volente_00:

you let them bulls scare you out of that swing short?


:eek:

Made 8 and am long to 75.00 on that synth straddle. Expect 1082-85 on Monday.

 

[atticus]

Quote from volente_00:

I don't follow market profile.


How can you say no predictive powers when I posted the range spy options gave me on August 2 and 3 were 1069 to 1130-1140 and since then we traded 1129 to 1063?


I will say that my reads on spy are only correct about 80% of the time.

You may call this just coincidence or luck but I have profited very well from using spy options to gauge market ranges.


Another thing I find interesting is when it does close with a high strike ITM, it often reverts back to it the following monday. My hunch is this has to to with assignment.

Using MP as an analogy, not as a tool.

 

[volente_00]

August 20


spy trading at 107.5

Quote from volente_00:

It is really to early for sept OE for them to give any indication. 2 to 3 weeks from expiration is most accurate for me.


104 to 110

Yep spy option open interest is useless for predicting the range.