Quote from RedTankEra:
It certainly increases the odds.
It's like a stranger stopping at the crossroad, you don't know where the person is going, but if you wait until the person chooses the path your chances of nailing the first destination will improve.
Needless to say, there are times where a "change of heart" is witnessed and the stranger returns to the crossroad, more or less what's normally referred to as a failed breakout, and the educated guessing game goes back to step 1.
How can you tell when "big money" has "chosen a path"?
Good luck.