Trump knows what he's doing. Need to crash the market to make it recover. Can't have it go up forever on nothing.
SPY going to $260?
- Thread starter nooby_mcnoob
- Start date
It's a two for one in his mind... And he might be right, first he gets China to sign structural reforms which they will sign in the end, and he gets his QE/Rate Cuts by fucking up the game only to restart it. Institutions ain't mad at that, shorts will love it, he gets to be " tough " on China which will get him more votes. Politically, it's the right play
Only he under estimates the damage snapping the Credit Markets can do, when it's a massive global bubble. Time will tell, we can only speculate
US credit will be backstopped by Daddy Fed.
https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/fed funds
Really, as my man Snider would say, Where are the dealers ?
Yesterday, 75h Percent came in 2 bps over EFF, 99th Percent 17 bps over EFF! If 25th Percent reaches parity in the upcoming days with EFF, after Fed on three occasions dropped IOER by 5 bps since beginning 18, then you know it's a wrap... Liquidity is tightening, fear has gripped US Interbank, Shadow crisis is looming in many countries including US. You see those 0 % down payment mortgages ? They made a comeback for a while, 3 % down gift funds allowed going around since 2016, those clowns borrow from Big Banks in credit markets. When their Non QM RMBS blow, well you know the rest... And this is the best unemployment figures in 50 years on top of that, while running over Trillion a year budget deficit
Really, as my man Snider would say, Where are the dealers ?
Yesterday, 75h Percent came in 2 bps over EFF, 99th Percent 17 bps over EFF! If 25th Percent reaches parity in the upcoming days with EFF, after Fed on three occasions dropped IOER by 5 bps since beginning 18, then you know it's a wrap... Liquidity is tightening, fear has gripped US Interbank, Shadow crisis is looming in many countries including US. You see those 0 % down payment mortgages ? They made a comeback for a while, 3 % down gift funds allowed going around since 2016, those clowns borrow from Big Banks in credit markets. When their Non QM RMBS blow, well you know the rest... And this is the best unemployment figures in 50 years on top of that, while running over Trillion a year budget deficit
And Non QM have been flying off the shelf according to my friend who is a huge wholesaler of this product.
No, he has Obama and his Fed to blame. Nearly 8 years of ZIRP plus multiple rounds of QE and stimulus overheated the markets past the boiling point. It's amazing the indexes are still up after raising rates multiple times. The S&P would be most likely be sub-2000 if the Lizard Queen were elected...and even worse under the "American Chavez" Sanders.
Buffett said stocks are cheap... but that had a big “if” attached to it.
I hear you... nothing is 100% sure in trading/investing, except bank CDs.
I like game theory... to me this is all poker.. what are they gonna do.. people get scared and market tanks even at a hint of hawkishness then the Fed has to walk it back to be a dove lol... plus the US doesn't even have the lowest rates.
You can't beat them you have to join them... there is risk of course... but what doesn't... the riskiest thing to do is not taking risk at all.
To me, the picture is clear, based on retail participation, for the foreseeable future the play is all-in... no doubt.
He said that recently? FWIW, Buffet has been underperforming the market since 2008.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4150977-pretty-picture-buffett-vs-s-and-p-500
The article was written in early 2018, but I believe Berkshire Hathaway is trailing the S&P by almost 10% in 2019 year-to-date.