SPY going to $260?

ElCubano said:
I wanted to hold long term and didn't.
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I wanted to hold LEVI long term; but i dont hold single stocks with with much mercy.Stopped out @ preplanned stop; ETFs investments are much different. I think SPY goes below $275, beforeSEPT 30 0r 31. UPRO downtrended below 10%, past 50 days, looks like its a better close than i figured THUR-i wasnt making a big bear predicition anyWay.LOL:cool::cool:, :cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:
 
nooby_mcnoob said:
So here's the fucked up thing.. The exact same thing that caused me to shift from long in mid 2018 is happening again. It's just a self-created indicator I've used for a long time and it usually has YEARS in between signals. It leads SPY by a little bit. It's not "the big one" but makes me feel like SPY is going to $260 in the short term. Selling puts around there now (so I get assigned long if it expires ITM). Probably wrong.

If I end up being right here, then I'll delete the other post where I said SPY going to $320 (THIS IS A JOKE I DIDN'T DO THIS)
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What's the track record (backtesting and real-time) of your indicator? If it has years between signals, I'm guessing the sample size is too small to take very seriously. But as others have said, there are a million strategies better than selling puts if you really have a crystal ball.
 
nooby_mcnoob said:
Because I want to go long at $260. I realized this is a dumb way to do it though I have a couple of similar trades open right now using this idea so I will wait to see how those turn out.
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The VIX hit 23 today. Then later in the day, the S&P came back and we're not much below where we closed yesterday, except that the VIX is still elevated. If you believe that S&P is going to 260, then sell SPY or SPX calls (or wide call spreads if you want defined-risk) going out a month or two (depending on how long you think it will take to get there). Then once SPY hits 260, close your calls and short puts / buy shares / or sell covered-call equivalent to how many shares you want to pick up.
 
MKTrader said:
What's the track record (backtesting and real-time) of your indicator? If it has years between signals, I'm guessing the sample size is too small to take very seriously. But as others have said, there are a million strategies better than selling puts .................
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Most likely $260 or lower this year. But it has to close below cash SPY $275/200 dma first. I thought SPY was going down more,today/close but UPRO has made about >10% lately, so maybe later in the year.[>10% @ week= beats Buffet LOL].:cool::cool:, :cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:
 
spy.jpg

Due a big drop sooner or later. See the chart of SPY since 94
spy.jpg
 
nooby_mcnoob said:
PPT will be activated today.
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They aren't... I told you guys, everyone thought I was nuts! Trump wants the credit markets to snap and recession start asap, if he can get Jerome n Fed to go Super Saiyan by August-September, he will have a shot in 2020... If recession hits later half of 2019, and Fed starts it's thing by December or Jan 2020, Stimulus might not have effect in time for election. He needs to get ahead of it, and he is clearly doing it. He was for No Deal Brexit big time, he knows the game he knows he needs a recovery stimulus or he's cooked in end 2020

Ima take a guess and say he will sign the biggest deal ever according to him, with 0 tariffs by July-August when it's full blown fucked everywhere, same time Fed announces stoppage of QT and 100 bps rate cut end June, then QE or equivalent by September. He ain't signing shit until credit markets snap, his massive rant on twitter just now shows where his intentions are. Will they jump in sometimes, obviously but it's clear he wants it to sink
 
Stockolio said:
They aren't... I told you guys, everyone thought I was nuts! Trump wants the credit markets to snap and recession start asap, if he can get Jerome n Fed to go Super Saiyan by August-September, he will have a shot in 2020... If recession hits later half of 2019, and Fed starts it's thing by December or Jan 2020, Stimulus might not have effect in time for election. He needs to get ahead of it, and he is clearly doing it. He was for No Deal Brexit big time, he knows the game he knows he needs a recovery stimulus or he's cooked in end 2020

Ima take a guess and say he will sign the biggest deal ever according to him, with 0 tariffs by July-August when it's full blown fucked everywhere, same time Fed announces stoppage of QT and 100 bps rate cut end June, then QE or equivalent by September. He ain't signing shit until credit markets snap, his massive rant on twitter just now shows where his intentions are. Will they jump in sometimes, obviously but it's clear he wants it to sink
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Might be right here. My body is ready.
 
Well, one thing is for sure....Frump has nobody but himself to blame for this market action. He gets to stew in his own juices all weekend, ruminating about the effects of his thumbs' actions.
 
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