SPY, EEM, FXI, EWQ, EWP all showing signs of THE ultimate bottom

Quote from S2007S:

Believe me Im not.....no matter how you look it there isnt anything that one can find positive about the out look on this economy...

The last bull market was inflated with monopoly money, how will they inflate the next bull market????

I dont know why everyone is so scared of a slowdown, its good for the economical cycle, yet no one believes there should ever be something called a recession, recessions in my opinion make the economy stronger in the long term, By preventing what could have been a long recession back after the dot com bubble burst all they did was inflate the markets with cheap credit and low interest rates, as we can see just 5-10 years later this wasnt the way to fix it, and what are they doing now, the SAME EXACT THING.
More...

Yes, it's amazing how fearful we are of the possibility of recession. Used to be, recessions were taken as a "normal cyclical part of the economy"... (actually they weren't really economically cyclical but rather monetarily cyclical... Fed stepping on the brake to cause them).

But now recession is almost politically unthinkable... as there's always an election "around the corner"... and the incumbent party fears losing seats if their is any stress in the economy... healthy or not.
 
I dont know where people are coming off saying that the stores are full and they can't see any signs that there is a recession...

When I go out, the crowds are not as large as they were a year or so ago. In the daytime, stores like Home Depot seem empty. There are certainly lots of smaller stores and car dealerships that have shut their doors.

Im seeing a lot of belt tightening everywhere of whatever is left. For example, this Halloween did you see many decorations arounds? What about Thanksgiving? What about gifts and other niceities?

Well, those cost money and everyone is squeezing where ever they can. I dont see anyone rampaging out to spend.
 
Quote from S2007S:

Believe me Im not.....no matter how you look it there isnt anything that one can find positive about the out look on this economy...
More...

Are you an "Economist" or a "Trader"?

Seems like you consistently make the mistake of not understanding that the MARKET does not have a direct correlation with the ECONOMY.

That is often a fatal mistake that many "newbies" make when learning how the stock market works.
 
If you want to look at this from a trading perspective then look at the chart, last 20 days...the index has to overcome a lot and I believe this is just another swell up in the course of a greater bear.

Its hard to believe the entire market has come down some 20% in 20 trading days. That might seem like great value, but wait until the index is at 620-640. I think then the long term traders can start stepping in at those levels...although...


 
Quote from S2007S:

Believe me Im not.....no matter how you look it there isnt anything that one can find positive about the out look on this economy...
More...

Do you even have a clue as to how many times the equity market has rallied and shown large percentage gains for the year even though the S&P 500 registered negative earnings growth?

ie.) In 1975 the S&P had -17% earnings growth and yet the market rallied +31%.

You obviously have no idea regarding how the market works vis-a-vis the Economy.
 
Quote from PortI385:

If you take a look at many of the world ETFs - EWP, EWQ, EWC, FXI, EEM, SPY, etc.. the movement in all of these indices, it is showing double bottom, the final kick in some of these ETFs seem like it was a classic shakeout for the weak hands.

For instance, EWP (Spain):

EWP1dl2332.png


We are oversold and if you take a look fundamentally many stocks are selling below cash/share. We are at THE ULTIMATE bottom here. No I'm not pumping.

Go to a mall, and take a look at how many people are shopping during the weekend. Does it feel like recession? Can people still afford $5 for a cup of Starbucks? Can people afford to buy a pair of Reebok or Nike? What about a new Dell, Sony, or Macbook?? I bet plenty are selling this Christmas. If so, then we're still doing fine. This feels like a fearmongering to me, and oil is at $40. Job losses are temporary and there will be a new job creation with Obama's program.

AAPL, GOOG, RIMM, V are just some of the individual names that are super cheap, in my opinion.
More...


You are looking towards to spending habits of Americans for a sign of stability? Are you high??

Buddy, you are trying to force an argument for a bottom here. Don't push it.
 
I don't see any point on stressing the, so called recesion. From a trader viewpoint this bear market is as wonderful as any bull market if not better. Trading is not a deal for people who get scared when the markets move, just move with the flow and let it be.
 
Lets say there was a bull market right here, right now. Why buy RIMM, V, AAPL and GOOG? Obviously those bubbles have popped. After each bear there is usually another set of stocks that run while the ole faves get left behind.

Plus Apples run during the last few years relied on the I-pod and I-phone. If you cruise the carriers websites, you can see where there is a lot more competition then before. RIMM and AAPL are both battling it out with the Blackberry Storm and I-Phone.

GOOG is simply dead money. Of course there will be short covering rallies like today for GOOG, but in the end we will find that it gets killed back to where it traded in 2004.
 
As for the next bull market you are right GOOG, RIMM, AAPL and the rest of those high flying tech stocks will not lead the nasdaq out of this bear market, I highly doubt they will even contribute much to the next bull market in the nasdaq which is years away, most tech is going to trade sideways for sometime, anyone slapping triple digit price targets on the likes of GOOG, RIMM, AMZN etc is just plain stupid. As I said earlier GOOG is pretty much an old school nasdaq stock, yea it might bounce here and there but I believe those days of a $600+ stock price are long gone, my next prediction for GOOG is $200-$250 and pre IPO price sometime at the end of 2009 early 2010.
 
Quote from slapshot:

Go back and look at history - it usually takes a triple bottom for a real big trend reversal - what you are pointing at is just bear market profit-taking bounces - the trend is still firmly DOWN.
.
More...
um yea but all it takes is one bear markt bounce to turn into a whole new bull market.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top