SPY 88 Won't Fall For Months: A Contrarian Hypothesis
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Boiling frog
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A submerged frog
The boiling frog story is a widespread anecdote describing a frog slowly being boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability of people to react to important changes that occur gradually. According to contemporary biologists the premise of the story is not literally true; an actual frog submerged and gradually heated will jump out.
the frog is the Longs here i guess.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A submerged frog
The boiling frog story is a widespread anecdote describing a frog slowly being boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability of people to react to important changes that occur gradually. According to contemporary biologists the premise of the story is not literally true; an actual frog submerged and gradually heated will jump out.
the frog is the Longs here i guess.
Quote from shortie:
Many posts on ET (including those by venerable traders) seem to indicate that the breach of SPY 87-88 level (May01-04 gap) is imminent.
I am wondering if this idea has become sufficiently pervasive and essentially is already priced in. As a famous trading proverb says: "A watched level never makes any money" (an equivalent known to a layman as "a watched pot never boils").
I would like to suggest that based on the above belief (and ONLY on that) the odds are in favor of SPY holding 87-88 level for at least a month.
Thoughts?
the month has passed and the level has held.
once in a while it pays to be a contrarian.
You have been proven right again!
Note that 88 is the high side of the right of the V bottom.
Note that 88 is the high side of the right of the V bottom.
Shortie, you are becoming a very good trader, and your posts are among the few that i pay much attention too, because they are level headed. I generally agree with you. Overall i expect Most of July to be rather boring on crappy volume. But crappy volume also means easily pushed hither and yon. Today we are up in the am to annoy the too eager shorts and make the weak hands cover, but i expect a close back down toward the pivot. Anyway good trading to you, and keep up the interesting posts.