SPY 88 Won't Fall For Months: A Contrarian Hypothesis

[noddyboy]

Quote from shortie:

right or wrong but ES +0.6% before the week even started.

I see it down..

 

[shortie]

must be because of the korean dude

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

Many posts on ET (including those by venerable traders) seem to indicate that the breach of SPY 87-88 level (May01-04 gap) is imminent.

I am wondering if this idea has become sufficiently pervasive and essentially is already priced in. As a famous trading proverb says: "A watched level never makes any money" (an equivalent known to a layman as "a watched pot never boils").

I would like to suggest that based on the above belief (and ONLY on that) the odds are in favor of SPY holding 87-88 level for at least a month.
....

 

[traderyin]

Quote from shortie:

It's only been 3 days....you said a month.....

 

[shortie]

Quote from traderyin:

It's only been 3 days....you said a month.....

i know, i know...

but today's bounce makes a lot of sense to me given too many shorts who assumed that 87-88 breach is in the cards.

 

[shortie]

SPY added 4% this week. Looks like my contrarian hypothesis will pan out.

 

[spinn]

the real question is...can it break the previous high of $93.50 or so?

My charts say that is unlikely.....but I find this move up irrational and do not understand it, so I did not enter a short today.

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

SPY added 4% this week. Looks like my contrarian hypothesis will pan out.

added another 2%.

don't hear much talk about SPY 87 level anymore for some reason

 

[weld1]

its gonna happen soon....low volume only works for so long...as we saw today. bear flag on 60 min. chart...

 

[MTRIG]

Two of my favorite TA items to use is Z-Score which is reaching oversold levels, and when RSI diverges from price. Since Z-Score is reaching a +2 Standard Deviation, and RSI is reaching lower lows while the price is reaching a higher high. This two things say there is some upward risk to SPY.

I do not try to project too far out, if the market based on TA is ready to move, trade it, but I do it with stops. This way I am not locked into thinking it will hit x target, just it is moving up or down and I am on the right side.