SPY 88 Won't Fall For Months: A Contrarian Hypothesis

[shortie]

Many posts on ET (including those by venerable traders) seem to indicate that the breach of SPY 87-88 level (May01-04 gap) is imminent.

I am wondering if this idea has become sufficiently pervasive and essentially is already priced in. As a famous trading proverb says: "A watched level never makes any money" (an equivalent known to a layman as "a watched pot never boils").

I would like to suggest that based on the above belief (and ONLY on that) the odds are in favor of SPY holding 87-88 level for at least a month.

Thoughts?

 

[shortie]

 

[gkishot]

The sooner the better.

 

[bwolinsky]

Probably a slight sell off, but then coming back big time. 1 week was my input, but the old adage of "it came up too far too fast" has no applicability today. The new one is "it went down too fast" is the new mantra. The bullshit about stocks rising 30% off their lows being too fast doesn't apply because they should never have gone that low in the first place. Pure and simple panic selling. Very doubtful to go much below 87-88 once it hits that level.

 

[shortie]

10 year data suggests +week after Memorial day:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10504989/1/coming-week-bullish-after-memorial-day.html

...."We did a study and found that going back the past 10 years, Memorial Day week is actually very bullish," Detrick said. "The past 10 years the S&P 500 has averaged 1.33% and is higher seven out of 10 times, including the past three."

While 1.33% may not seem all that significant, Detrick said that over the last 10 years, the average weekly return has been slightly negative at 0.04%, and just over half of those 522 weeks have been positive......

 

[NoProblem]

http://thechartpatterntrader.com/

This guy is pretty cool imo........great technical analysis + he adds potential market moving news type stuff sometimes.

I've only watched his stuff for the last few weeks - worth the watch imo.

Steve

 

[piezoe]

Yes. I agree with all of you. What you have outlined is the most probable scenario.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from shortie:

10 year data suggests +week after Memorial day:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10504989/1/coming-week-bullish-after-memorial-day.html

...."We did a study and found that going back the past 10 years, Memorial Day week is actually very bullish," Detrick said. "The past 10 years the S&P 500 has averaged 1.33% and is higher seven out of 10 times, including the past three."

While 1.33% may not seem all that significant, Detrick said that over the last 10 years, the average weekly return has been slightly negative at 0.04%, and just over half of those 522 weeks have been positive......

Oh boy shortie. I know you're quoting a source, but 7 out of 10? I guess I should bet my farm on a bet that has won 70% of the time in the last 10 years. That'd be 10 trades, lol. Like that's even statistically significant. I bet you got it off cnbc, where they quote that sort of statistically insignificant backtesting result on a daily basis.

 

[shortie]

Quote from bwolinsky:

Oh boy shortie. I know you're quoting a source, but 7 out of 10? I guess I should bet my farm on a bet that has won 70% of the time in the last 10 years. That'd be 10 trades, lol. Like that's even statistically significant. I bet you got it off cnbc, where they quote that sort of statistically insignificant backtesting result on a daily basis.

i agree, the evidence is flimsy.

 

[shortie]

Quote from bwolinsky:

Oh boy shortie. I know you're quoting a source, but 7 out of 10? I guess I should bet my farm on a bet that has won 70% of the time in the last 10 years. That'd be 10 trades, lol. Like that's even statistically significant. I bet you got it off cnbc, where they quote that sort of statistically insignificant backtesting result on a daily basis.

right or wrong but ES +0.6% before the week even started.