The market closed about 5 points below its weekly trendline today. With 3 more days before the weekly candle is completed, it is too soon to declare the trendline broken, but it needs to be watched closely.
The market traded essentially with the dollar today, as it has been doing. Some forex gurus had predicted that the eur/usd would not be allowed to go much above 1.50 without intervention. In fact the eur/usd did get barely beyond 1.50 before a swift reaction to the downside occured.
Although the market has risen more or less lock-step with a falling dollar, I am of the opinion that the market will not fall in the same proportion with a rising dollar; though so far that seems to be what it is doing. Certainly commodities are very much affected by swings in the dollar.
This market has not been trading with much conviction. We seem to be losing steam slowly. I won't be surprised if we bounce off the trendline-- as we did before-- or consolidate sideways through it for a while. But I will be surprised if this is all we get, and it is all downhill from here, because the heavier the door the more times the market usually knocks before it opens. And once it opens the market usually tries to go back through it at least once, and sometimes succeeds.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2619937>
The market traded essentially with the dollar today, as it has been doing. Some forex gurus had predicted that the eur/usd would not be allowed to go much above 1.50 without intervention. In fact the eur/usd did get barely beyond 1.50 before a swift reaction to the downside occured.
Although the market has risen more or less lock-step with a falling dollar, I am of the opinion that the market will not fall in the same proportion with a rising dollar; though so far that seems to be what it is doing. Certainly commodities are very much affected by swings in the dollar.
This market has not been trading with much conviction. We seem to be losing steam slowly. I won't be surprised if we bounce off the trendline-- as we did before-- or consolidate sideways through it for a while. But I will be surprised if this is all we get, and it is all downhill from here, because the heavier the door the more times the market usually knocks before it opens. And once it opens the market usually tries to go back through it at least once, and sometimes succeeds.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2619937>
