SPX.. they say opportunties don't come twice

[iceman1]

But it looks like we will get a great chance to go long deep ITM SPX put options once again. Last summer bought 1010-1050 puts and rode them from 51 to (approx) $190-200 area and scaled out (yes and left some on the table). And here comes the SUN, again!

Would urge options traders to begin stalking purchase of SPX deeps after SPX begins to show signs of a top/reversal. But as for me I am often early.... so will begin buying IF and when SPX nears 925-940. If and when filled will likely sell OTMs front month puts on any minor retracement, to lower cost basis.

Anyone else stalking short trades. If so what and when and why?

 

[bungrider]

it's funny how everyone is looking to short this rally today, whereas the past few rallies have only inspired short covering...

i don't trade the indices, so this is just my .02 not based on anything really. just pointing out what's in the air.

 

[lundy]

will buy QQQ April puts today, maybe 27's or 28's.

I'm waiting for an intraday rally, hopefully we take out highs, then I make my move as we fall back towards the close.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from bungrider:

it's funny how everyone is looking to short this rally today, whereas the past few rallies have only inspired short covering...

i don't trade the indices, so this is just my .02 not based on anything really. just pointing out what's in the air.

I agree with your take... not the time to short, yet. But rather to begin looking (stalking) to purchase ITM puts imho. We got a "war" rally but no one is certain what will become of the middle east or Iraq during the next 6 months, and we continue to see poor to mediocre economic news.

I want to be on the side of the smart money when they begin stepping on this market... and I'm certain some of them will begin fading these violent, emotional "patriotic" rallies like we are experiencing. Look back to 9/11 and the results of staying long... too long.

But as always... will let the market make the final call.

:eek:

Regards,

 

[oddiduro]

Quote from bungrider:

it's funny how everyone is looking to short this rally today, whereas the past few rallies have only inspired short covering...

i don't trade the indices, so this is just my .02 not based on anything really. just pointing out what's in the air.

I think most of the shorts have been squeezed out, so I don't see anymore melt ups.

We rallied on the troops entering Bagdad.

If they get mired down in Bagdad, we should retrace at least back to 8000.

Best case scenario for the longs is two more weeks of buying, then everyone realizes that the economy hasn't moved.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from oddiduro:



I think most of the shorts have been squeezed out, so I don't see anymore melt ups.

We rallied on the troops entering Bagdad.

If they get mired down in Bagdad, we should retrace at least back to 8000.

Best case scenario for the longs is two more weeks of buying, then everyone realizes that the economy hasn't moved.

was looking at 200 d EMA as posibility ST... and maybe a 'thrust' or penetration above said level, near recent range highs... to make it look like a breakout.

Also looking at NDX itm puts

Regards,

Ice

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:



was looking at 200 d EMA as probably ST... and maybe a 'thrust' or penetration above said level, near recent range highs... to make it look like a breakout.

Also looking at NDX itm puts

Regards,

Ice

Just realized I probably should have started this in "Options" .

If the moderator wishes to move it, please do. Thanks.

Ice

 

[limitdown]

good for you!!!!


hope you're onto your 2nd double....

you called it right

 

[iceman1]

Quote from limitdown:

good for you!!!!


hope you're onto your 2nd double....

you called it right

yes, thanks... time is getting ripe... but I'm gonna wait to enter after I know we have "topped" out. Not sure today's action qualifies in my book as a 'key' reversal day... but lately, in this hedge fund/bear/ market, some of the classic patterns don't always play out identical to the book. No doubt it's beginning to look like a top. My bet is we get another, better opportunity... so held off entering 975 SPX puts today... gonna stalk more. Want to nail it with larger size. So don't want to be too early, don't want to miss either. But plan was not to fade a large pop like this, but rather to enter and hold after a top is confirmed... awaiting a major retracement of this recent move on SPX/NDX. For that we will have another opportunity... perhaps after expiry. But market will let us know.

Have some equity/options positions already in place for any sizeable down move...

But want to be sure the war won't yield anymore upside... and that the 'worry' begins to focus on downside risks like terrorist attacks, a protracted occupation and of course the cost therof and it's affect on this economy!


Regards,

Ice

 

[Trader Pete]

what "bottom" price level are you thinking? 680 - 720 does not seem that unlikely. been shorting the high call spreads lately though...

Pete