SPX Historical Spread Plays

atticus,

Not that it's any of your business, but you'll probably be sorry to hear, that yes, more than $800,000 has been repaid. Get off my back, I've said my mea culpa. Or are some kind of avenging angel, or something.

Josh
 
Quote from optionsmaven:

atticus,

Not that it's any of your business, but you'll probably be sorry to hear, that yes, more than $800,000 has been repaid. Get off my back, I've said my mea culpa. Or are some kind of avenging angel, or something.

Josh
More...

Avenging angel? Nah. Words are cheap, and obviously your debt to society isn't paid. I am certain your investors would rather have seen their equity returned than see you do a four-year stint. I don't believe for a second you've paid back $800k.

My brother was scammed out of $4MM from Madoff; you're both psychopaths drawn to the scene of the crime.

To use an analogy... I have a problem with pedos getting back on the pulpit.

Go f*ck yourself.
 
OKay folks, you win. There's no sense me continuing on in these Forums. I've had enough grief in my life to this point. There's no sense inviting more. You're judge, jury and executioner. For any of you who don't subscribe to the vituperation, thank you. For the others, have nice lives, secure in your sactimony.

Josh
 
(In case anyone is still reading this thread.)

I fracked up on checking the weeklys (who knew there was a company named SPX Corp and you need a ^on Yahoo?).

Anyway the weekly results for the real index are even worse and for the 2001 to present about the same as the total history - about 53/47 up weeks/down weeks.
 
I added the Modified Martingale to the strategy I am testing.This is the one that only goes to a max of two units after two losses, and back to one after two wins. It consistently adds about 40% to the results. It seems like it works as long as your strategy wins in the long run. But then if you have a winning plan, why not just bet 1.4 units all the time?

BTW, there was a guy who had a website called BloodInTheStreets, and more recently GetFolio.com who did something similar. He would start small and if a stock went down a certain percentage he would buy 2x the dollar amount, and if it went down again he would add 3x.I think his limit was 3x. I was following his picks about 11 years ago, and entered them into a Yahoo portfolio. Then the Tech Wreck hit and I bailed at a loss. A year or two later I checked Yahoo and the damn portfolio was up quite a bit.
 
Interesting stuff, EH.

And Josh may have had his problems (deservedly) but this idea of riding long term ~60% up months with smart money management, using ATM verts with a near 50/50 R/R, has some merit for those willing to grind it out.

The idea is interesting, in that the market drops farther and faster, so that even with a down trend or two you can get back your 60% win rate fairly quickly. It's almost like playing a coin-flip game, but winning 60% of the time (over the "long term"). Of course trading friction will eat into some of those gains...
 
Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

Interesting stuff, EH.

And Josh may have had his problems (deservedly) but this idea of riding long term ~60% up months with smart money management, using ATM verts with a near 50/50 R/R, has some merit for those willing to grind it out.

The idea is interesting, in that the market drops farther and faster, so that even with a down trend or two you can get back your 60% win rate fairly quickly. It's almost like playing a coin-flip game, but winning 60% of the time (over the "long term"). Of course trading friction will eat into some of those gains...
More...

First of all - in real life you won't get filled by $5 for $10 spread (try it and you will know what i said), mostly you will get filled around $4 (before commission).

2nd thing to ask, if you try to close your position when it hit your stop loss, you provide a free lunch to some "people" by sell cheap buy expensive in bid/ask (who is those people ? a million dollar question, a common scam in penny stock advice newsletter)
 
Update on the Modified Martingale.

Just ran my test on 2011 YTD. A single unit would be down .62 points but the MM is actually up 1.02. If I had just bet 1.4 units it would be down .87.
 
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