SPX Has Topped For The Year Or Pabst Will Leave ET

Quote from thorn:

I'm unilaterally giving Pabst a mulligan here. He deserves it, and I didn't like this call when I saw it.
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thorn - with respect - you have been itching to call a top the past several weeks. what do you see now?
 
Quote from optioncoach:

I doubt ET is such a prize one has to use it as punishment for making a wrong call.

But it is interesting how SPX keeps fading off of intraday highs and pulling back. I think the bulls are waiting for Friday's report and the bears keep pushing us off of SPX highs. Dow does not count really since it is 30 stocks so even though it is making new highs, 3 stocks having a strong day raise the DOW.

We may not crash but OCT could be the rest before the Turkey rally starts up...
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look at the options and futures - activity lately has been _krazy_, and i know krazy. as i see it now, the whole world is short: these fades are being caused by the options and futures. there is some big cash swinging around the derivative markets lately and, frankly, the shorts are going to bite it because of this. the honest-to-god shorts who have sold short equities are going to feel a large amount of pain in the coming weeks from this new cash rolling around. I am curious how much it will take for them to break.
 
Quote from nitro:

It doesn't matter what I believe. What matters is what markets believe.

FWIW, I believe these rallies are based on nothing other than rotation out of oil related positions, not an inherent belief by buyers that the [rest of the] markets are cheap or even fairly valued, by any means. Rising stock markets to me is grossly misjudged. But then I am short...

Markets can and do what they will.

nitro
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Interesting theory. What about the May rally everything was going up in tandem, wchih really didn't make sense. :confused: Oil is freefalling like they'll be back in to run it up again in a few months.
 
Quote from krazykarl:

thorn - with respect - you have been itching to call a top the past several weeks. what do you see now?
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KK-- this thread is about Pabsts call.

itching and calling a top are 2 different things. I said ill start a new thread when i see another "intermediate term" top, and that hasn't changed.
 
Quote from Pabst:

Without giving away what I'm looking at (some of you know a little) I believe that SPX did Friday what most indices did months ago. Topped. As in over. Perhaps over for a few years. This call is not based on hunch or feel and certainly not based on fundamentals although IMO a wild card event will accelerate the break. Rather it's a call I'm making off of a complex analysis of measured moves that provide the backbone of my trading.

I will give myself wiggle room to 1347.86

IF SPX trades above 1348 anytime this year I will leave Elite Trader forever. I will also suffer a pretty good hit financially if SPX continues to rally.

In memory of those American's who perished 5 years ago: Let's roll!
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Rather than make an "all or nothing" call, isn't it better to just say the odds are in favour of being short? I mean what if it goes to 1352, then falls to 1180? A short call will be fine, but your "topped at 1348" call will be wrong.

I don't really see how such precision can be justified.
 
well, large specs are still buyin' and with the chance of a rate cut the next fed meetin' risk is still concentrated on the upside imo.
 
since the dow closed at all time high yesterday, do you guys think all the trend followers will be buying today?
 
Quote from m4a1:

since the dow closed at all time high yesterday, do you guys think all the trend followers will be buying today?
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prolly yes, if it aint today will be tomorrow or the day after.
 
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