SPX Has Topped For The Year Or Pabst Will Leave ET

riskarb · Oct 3, 2006

MP always looks fantastic after the trade. It's a bit like fuzzy logic oscillators or [gasp], Elliott.

5Pillars · Oct 3, 2006

Quote from riskarb:

MP always looks fantastic after the trade. It's a bit like fuzzy logic oscillators or [gasp], Elliott.

Yes....the 1336's and the 1347's were never shown or mentioned by me before todays trading....LOL!

Here are the levels for tomorrows trading.........

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/10/03/MP.png

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/10/03/MP_2.png

1347.25

1337.00

1331.50 (minor level)

1324.50

Below this 1320.00 is the major level imo for this range we are in...if this level is breached with initiated selling, then liquidation would accelerate imo.

*****DISCLAIMER***** I do not and will not enable negativity!

riskarb · Oct 3, 2006

Quote from 5Pillars:

*****DISCLAIMER***** I do not and will not enable negativity!

hahaha! too late, I am enabled!

5Pillars · Oct 3, 2006

Quote from riskarb:

hahaha! too late, I am enabled!

Good one....LOL!

I was having a bit of fun and trying to get a rise out of you.

Btw, you want to teach me how to do some Nassim Taleb trades?

riskarb · Oct 3, 2006

Quote from 5Pillars:

Good one....LOL!

I was having a bit of fun and trying to get a rise out of you.

Btw, you want to teach me how to do some Nassim Taleb trades?

Sure, this would be the my method du jour:

Step 1: Write a book with numerous errors in formulae.

Step 2: Take book royalties and buy deep otm gamma... after-all, it's pure curvature!

Step 3: Have your rich wife write the checks while your gamma sleeps in the Land of Wind and Ghosts.

5Pillars · Oct 3, 2006

You forgot the.........

Step 4: Hit a trade with a 67,000% return and look like the "hero" that you now are.

thorn · Oct 3, 2006

Quote from Pabst:

Without giving away what I'm looking at (some of you know a little) I believe that SPX did Friday what most indices did months ago. Topped. As in over. Perhaps over for a few years. This call is not based on hunch or feel and certainly not based on fundamentals although IMO a wild card event will accelerate the break. Rather it's a call I'm making off of a complex analysis of measured moves that provide the backbone of my trading.

I will give myself wiggle room to 1347.86

IF SPX trades above 1348 anytime this year I will leave Elite Trader forever. I will also suffer a pretty good hit financially if SPX continues to rally.

In memory of those American's who perished 5 years ago: Let's roll!

I'm unilaterally giving Pabst a mulligan here. He deserves it, and I didn't like this call when I saw it.

RichardRimes · Oct 3, 2006

Quote from polpolik:

Personally, I'd never attempt a position trade with a bearish bias in Octobers. If September came out strong, I'm guessing this month will be quite a bit stronger than last month.

Good luck Pabst, all this pain can be ended with the click of a Buy button

actually on the SPX as far as SET (or exp) is concerned since 1998 If we have had an UP SEP (compared to Aug) then OCT was down and often visa versa unless they were BOTH down. One exception was 2003 (a bull year) when both Sep and Oct were up. I believe the probabilities are that SPX Oct 2006 will be lower than Sep (exp & Set). Whether it has topped for the year I have no clue but I certainly hope Pabst won't leave ET...say it was just an "empty gesture

"

El OchoCinco · Oct 3, 2006

I doubt ET is such a prize one has to use it as punishment for making a wrong call.

But it is interesting how SPX keeps fading off of intraday highs and pulling back. I think the bulls are waiting for Friday's report and the bears keep pushing us off of SPX highs. Dow does not count really since it is 30 stocks so even though it is making new highs, 3 stocks having a strong day raise the DOW.

We may not crash but OCT could be the rest before the Turkey rally starts up...

polpolik · Oct 3, 2006

Thanks for pointing out the facts. See what making claims without the facts got me

I am short the YM and ER2 overnight. But probably not as vehemently bearish like Pabst is but true, I would hate to see him leave.

Quote from RichardRimes:

actually on the SPX as far as SET (or exp) is concerned since 1998 If we have had an UP SEP (compared to Aug) then OCT was down and often visa versa unless they were BOTH down. One exception was 2003 (a bull year) when both Sep and Oct were up. I believe the probabilities are that SPX Oct 2006 will be lower than Sep (exp & Set). Whether it has topped for the year I have no clue but I certainly hope Pabst won't leave ET...say it was just an "empty gesture "