SPX Has Topped For The Year Or Pabst Will Leave ET

Technical analysis is not the only way to view the situation.

Fundamental analysis, with a slowing national economy, and lower earnings' guidance in 3Q, may have something to say in this matter.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Technical analysis is not the only way to view the situation.

Fundamental analysis, with a slowing national economy, and lower earnings' guidance in 3Q, may have something to say in this matter.
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Very misguided, but you are entitled to your opinion and I won't argue with that right.
 
Thanks for your comments, they mean as much as Pabst's word does...

Quote from Longhorns:

ZZZ,

You add nothing to ET (or the world for that matter). Go back to the "Politics and Religion" section where you can continue to post your drivel.
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Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Very misguided, but you are entitled to your opinion and I won't argue with that right.
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Why would fundamental analysis not be an appropriate way of measuring this market?

Are you saying fundamental analysis itself is flawed?
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Why would fundamental analysis not be an appropriate way of measuring this market?

Are you saying fundamental analysis itself is flawed?
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No, what I am saying is that fundamental analysis shows itself in the technical analysis. So, fundamental analysis is not needed. But, this is not really a discussion of fundamental vs technical. This is more a discussion of the merits of making an "all in" top call without any clear evidence of a top. Mind you, we could be at a top, but there is no clear evidence yet, and so this type of call is gambling although the only thing being bet is an ET login. :)
 
Quote from Pabst:

Without giving away what I'm looking at (some of you know a little) I believe that SPX did Friday what most indices did months ago. Topped. As in over. Perhaps over for a few years. This call is not based on hunch or feel and certainly not based on fundamentals although IMO a wild card event will accelerate the break. Rather it's a call I'm making off of a complex analysis of measured moves that provide the backbone of my trading.

I will give myself wiggle room to 1347.86

IF SPX trades above 1348 anytime this year I will leave Elite Trader forever. I will also suffer a pretty good hit financially if SPX continues to rally.

In memory of those American's who perished 5 years ago: Let's roll!
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pabst - you've contributed some quality information to the board - even if i don't agree with you most of the time.

i am curious about what you are basing this prediciton on: i know there is no shortage of pessamisam out there, but the trend is up. every move down has been on light volume.

we are breaking 1400 before the end of the year.


regards,
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

No, what I am saying is that fundamental analysis shows itself in the technical analysis. So, fundamental analysis is not needed. But, this is not really a discussion of fundamental vs technical. This is more a discussion of the merits of making an "all in" top call without any clear evidence of a top. Mind you, we could be at a top, but there is no clear evidence yet, and so this type of call is gambling although the only thing being bet is an ET login. :)
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I see.

What would have technical analysis alone told us about the markets in 1999, though?
 
While it takes guts to step on the gas and make a big bet when you're sure about something, sooner or later you will be wrong and take a big hit. A very important part of trading well is to avoid big drawdowns.

Good luck to you anyways - October has been a bad month for stocks in the past.
 
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