SPX Has Topped For The Year Or Pabst Will Leave ET
- Thread starter Pabst
- Start date
The Dow will continue to be the strongest U.S. index.
The public is largely ignorant to the struggles of the Russell or the S&P 400 Midcaps. Just like in 2000-2001 when the DJI hung tough while tech was annihilated.
The best shorts are the 2003-2005 leaders, not the stocks making new highs in late 2006. In other words ER2 is a better short than NQ which in turn is a better short than ES which is a better short than YM......
The public is largely ignorant to the struggles of the Russell or the S&P 400 Midcaps. Just like in 2000-2001 when the DJI hung tough while tech was annihilated.
The best shorts are the 2003-2005 leaders, not the stocks making new highs in late 2006. In other words ER2 is a better short than NQ which in turn is a better short than ES which is a better short than YM......
Hi Pabst,
I really appreciate your contributions to this board and neither would want you to disappear from it nor to take a financial hit (although, as a seasoned trader, you are probably managing your risk well).
I employ a sophisticated (but not yet complete) and reliable prediction system on the US equity market.
My current conclusion is, that the SPX will continue to make new highs for the coming months, before a full-blown new BULL market will start some time within 2 (max 3) years.
I also expect there will be short-lived downside at some time within the next 5 trading days, probably even starting tomorrow or tuesday.
Personally, I would preferably exit my short positions during this phase.
Regards
I really appreciate your contributions to this board and neither would want you to disappear from it nor to take a financial hit (although, as a seasoned trader, you are probably managing your risk well).
I employ a sophisticated (but not yet complete) and reliable prediction system on the US equity market.
My current conclusion is, that the SPX will continue to make new highs for the coming months, before a full-blown new BULL market will start some time within 2 (max 3) years.
I also expect there will be short-lived downside at some time within the next 5 trading days, probably even starting tomorrow or tuesday.
Personally, I would preferably exit my short positions during this phase.
Regards
We need more floridians here.
I too want to say "here's the top" but can see the DJIA remain strong through the election, and then finish up strong for the year and pop a little in Jan-Feb 07 due to first of year capital inflows. Continued commodity price softness with oil price stability will keep the fed on the sidelines, and some of the rally in bonds will sell off as everyone realizes that the fed isn't going to move as quickly as they thought and the world isn't ending. However, dismal consumer demand through christmas in the retail sector in that scenario will probably start to generate similar softness in March and then we're back to the same old story.
However, your scenario of a multiple top in the dow is quite compelling and quite concerning, particularly if you are following the dow theory and notice the lack of confirmation. I have moved a significant amount of assets to a defensive position and am continuing to monitor closely this situation to see if I am going to get aggressively bearish.
I too want to say "here's the top" but can see the DJIA remain strong through the election, and then finish up strong for the year and pop a little in Jan-Feb 07 due to first of year capital inflows. Continued commodity price softness with oil price stability will keep the fed on the sidelines, and some of the rally in bonds will sell off as everyone realizes that the fed isn't going to move as quickly as they thought and the world isn't ending. However, dismal consumer demand through christmas in the retail sector in that scenario will probably start to generate similar softness in March and then we're back to the same old story.
However, your scenario of a multiple top in the dow is quite compelling and quite concerning, particularly if you are following the dow theory and notice the lack of confirmation. I have moved a significant amount of assets to a defensive position and am continuing to monitor closely this situation to see if I am going to get aggressively bearish.
Why in the world would you leave just for making a call?
First of all, let me say--that an all in bet on a top here is rookie at best. It shows a gambling streak within Pabst albeit the "all in" is just a login with ET. It does though belie an impulsive and dangerous tendency of the OP. Now to my analysis-- While the daily chart is bumping the RSI Overbought line, we are still in a strong uptrend. There could be a pullback here or a full reversal, but we need more information to be able to confirm that. I believe that a pulback would be more likely to be met with more buying and then a move higher. That can change at anytime, but right now, there is no reason to be long term short(not talking about intraday charts etc). Attached is my ES weekly chart showing the strong uptrend on weekly. I would say that a close below 1321.50 would indicate a possible short term top on the daily (the chart here is weekly). I will post the monthly today as well. Comments are welcome. Right now, long is the way to be long term. 