SPX Has Topped For The Year Or Pabst Will Leave ET

P

Pabst

Without giving away what I'm looking at (some of you know a little) I believe that SPX did Friday what most indices did months ago. Topped. As in over. Perhaps over for a few years. This call is not based on hunch or feel and certainly not based on fundamentals although IMO a wild card event will accelerate the break. Rather it's a call I'm making off of a complex analysis of measured moves that provide the backbone of my trading.

I will give myself wiggle room to 1347.86

IF SPX trades above 1348 anytime this year I will leave Elite Trader forever. I will also suffer a pretty good hit financially if SPX continues to rally.

In memory of those American's who perished 5 years ago: Let's roll!
 
Quote from Bitstream:

well, u should buy if is an omage to 9/11..to show strength and solidarity, shortin' no good imo. mixed message.
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Nothing expresses patriotism better than a solid 20% correction. :p
 
Quote from Pabst:


IF SPX trades above 1348 anytime this year I will leave Elite Trader forever.
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[Pekelo busily printing this post and filing it] :)

But I agree with you, show is over, in 2 weeks in October we will give all the Sept gains back....
 
Pabst,

I happen to agree with you. However, if you're wrong, I'd hate to see you leave ET. Are you serious about that?

I read somewhere that if you are soooo sure about something and don't think anything other than that is a possibility, then be very careful (you may not want to bet on it). This has happened to me a couple times.

I'm waiting for drop next week or the following. We'll see. I don't see how we can keep going up from here.


Frank


Quote from Pabst:

Without giving away what I'm looking at (some of you know a little) I believe that SPX did Friday what most indices did months ago. Topped. As in over. Perhaps over for a few years. This call is not based on hunch or feel and certainly not based on fundamentals although IMO a wild card event will accelerate the break. Rather it's a call I'm making off of a complex analysis of measured moves that provide the backbone of my trading.

I will give myself wiggle room to 1347.86

IF SPX trades above 1348 anytime this year I will leave Elite Trader forever. I will also suffer a pretty good hit financially if SPX continues to rally.

In memory of those American's who perished 5 years ago: Let's roll!
More...
 
First off -- I would like to disclose that I also am a massive bear with a giant sized erection in regards to a possible down turn. But I've learned its best to thread lightly. These turning points can be a little tricky.
 
Quote from frank99:

Pabst,

I happen to agree with you. However, if you're wrong, I'd hate to see you leave ET. Are you serious about that?

I read somewhere that if you are soooo sure about something and don't think anything other than that is a possibility, then be very careful (you may not want to bet on it). This has happened to me a couple times.

I'm waiting for drop next week or the following. We'll see. I don't see how we can keep going up from here.


Frank
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Quote from ozzy:

First off -- I would like to disclose that I also am a massive bear with a giant sized erection in regards to a possible down turn. But I've learned its best to thread lightly. These turning points can be a little tricky.
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Guy's, I'm FULLY cognizant that ANY further strength could induce a mother of a short covering pop. Ozzy knows what a pivotal area this really is. Nothing random about these prices. I'll be out of my shorts if we trade 10pts higher.
 
Pabst


Registered: Dec 2001
Posts: 5369


07-21-06 12:04 PM

If you're long and under water you're living in denial.

It's not so much conditions being bearish. It's more a case of longs just not seeing any upside potential in this climate. The only buyers I see are those who are averaging bad positions from higher levels and some shorts who are taking a few in.

IMO SPX will be under 1200 by this time next week.


<img src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5EGSPC&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s"/>


"Wrong-Way" Pabst? :D

Just messin' with ya P, and I agree - Don't leave ET if you are wrong. To heck with these bold predictions and position trades - just trade 'em every day!

Good trading to all. :cool:
 
Dont leave dont leave. We need u here.

U will eventually be right even if we rally some more from here. I would think it is stupid if u leave because the spooze rally 10 pts more and goes into a free fall after the last leg of short squeeze.
 
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