SPX Has Topped For The Year Or Pabst Will Leave ET

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I of course agree with you and riskarb. No two ways about it. But by the same token there's many systems that fail to account for the tremendous slippage in the aftermath of data. It's rarely a huge issue in the indices but Treasuries' and FX become hideously illiquid during payroll. Sometimes I'll see a tested system kick in a long 6 ticks into a one minute/30 tick bond rally and the reality is, he NEVER could have gotten that price.

Exactly, and this one further reason that position trading is a better bet for most traders. --Typically you are entering and exiting positions near the closing, not during report times and thus there is less slippage to consider. As for stops, they are best placed outside significant reaction highs/lows and would generally not be hit during reports anyway.
 
So you are saying that when a big economic report comes out, the market never knee jerks in one directon stronlgy, only to reverse in 5 minutes and explode in that same direction?

:) I am sure the MMs shake out stops on economic news quite a bit and then run the opposite direction

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Exactly, and this one further reason that position trading is a better bet for most traders. --Typically you are entering and exiting positions near the closing, not during report times and thus there is less slippage to consider. As for stops, they are best placed outside significant reaction highs/lows and would generally not be hit during reports anyway.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Exactly, and this one further reason that position trading is a better bet for most traders. --Typically you are entering and exiting positions near the closing, not during report times and thus there is less slippage to consider. As for stops, they are best placed outside significant reaction highs/lows and would generally not be hit during reports anyway.

Or "don't trade in the few minutes surrounding a report" for day traders ... or "don't enter new positions on the day of a major report" for eod traders (who in my experience are more likely to enter on open than close).
 
Quote from optioncoach:

So you are saying that when a big economic report comes out, the market never knee jerks in one directon stronlgy, only to reverse in 5 minutes and explode in that same direction?

:) I am sure the MMs shake out stops on economic news quite a bit and then run the opposite direction

Agreed. The stops that a daytrader uses may get hit, but position traders with properly placed stops on the daily or weekly chart do not get run and can exit at the time that they choose.
 
Quote from kiwi_trader:

Or "don't trade in the few minutes surrounding a report" for day traders ... or "don't enter new positions on the day of a major report" for eod traders (who in my experience are more likely to enter on open than close).

Successful position traders will generally enter later in the day or at the close. Agreed that a daytrader may want to avoid entering until after the report(perhaps well after). The successful position trader is usually already positioned prior to reports or news and these are just noise within the boundaries of the reaction highs/lows. What I am getting at of course is a wider stop than some may not be able to stomach, but if your underleveraged, you most assuredly can handle it.
 
Quote from optioncoach:

So you are saying that when a big economic report comes out, the market never knee jerks in one directon stronlgy, only to reverse in 5 minutes and explode in that same direction?

:) I am sure the MMs shake out stops on economic news quite a bit and then run the opposite direction

And this is another disadvantage for the daytrader--these knee jerk moves during reports/news.
The daytrader has almost everything working against him. Higher leverage is the daytraders one plus, but unfortunately it also becomes a negative as it creates weak hands who have to exit or be fried. :)
 
that is EXACTLY when you should not trade a system - you have another varriable in the model with a HUGE coefficent - take the day off.

think about it - does your system predict world events? with an 80% probability, does it know the following:

1. will something good/bad happen?
2. will the market dive/idle/spike on #1?

for a system to be effective it needs to know #1 AND #2. we know your system does not call world events, so #1 is out, making it inaccurate unless you remove _most_ instances of #1: don't trade when you know there is an event coming.
I am quite comfortable trading my system because I have tested it well and have successfully traded it, including through news days. I have moved well beyond steps 26 and 27 over here. (URL ripped from another thread here.) Feel free to give your opinions. Just realize that they won't affect my trading. I have confidence in my system until it breaches the drawdown previously mentioned some day.

-Raystonn
 
Quote from 5Pillars:

Come on Pabst.....help me get more than my + 15 point target this time.............

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/10/05/ES_317_VB_10.png

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/10/05/ES_317_VB_11.png
This was the official, "let's see if N Korea is dumb enough to test a nuke" SHORT swing trade. :D
http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/10/06/ES_317_VB.png

Second cover should be at + 10 points but I covered a portion just above the 1353.25 market profile level as the delta shifted to positive...............

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/10/06/ES_317_VB_2.png

If we keep selling off then I will get those two points back with a cover later.

No N. Korea nuke test yet :D
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Sold another 5@1354.50

open positions

s 5 1349

s 5 1362

s 5 1354.50

total -15

buy stops 5@56.50 and 5@57

We'll see........

Well I see that, like the commander in chief, you are staying the course !
 
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