SPX/ES Market Outlook

Quote from EliteThink:

Cash 1340 has been breached but 1335-1340 may be the actual support zone. However, the selling appears orderly. None the less, a move to spx 1300 cannot be outruled as a complex head and shoulders formation looks confirmed. As a whole, most charts are ugly technically, but some, like the comp and aapl, give some indications of support holding.
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Looks like SPY is headed for its 10 year low;
thats a direction, not a destination target.[Sell in may any way]:D

And since its an election year ;
exspect more chop than usual.None of this is a prediction.
Gold GLD are still uptrending, but i have measured plenty of better up trends that that.

Silver,SLV may get interesting around its 12 mo lows...........;
but 1 yr trend is still down/bearish
 
that would be quite a move.

this is day six in a row in the red. JPM is getting hammered and down 30% since the admission of the losses. SPX 1300 has given way and is carving out new lows with the overnight es low now taken out. The fact the market opened up was a gift to those needing otm puts to expire or make adjustments. Today's move down could shake out weak hands, as 1300 has a number of cases for support. However, the selling doesn't feel like there is panic, and many bottoms are marked by a gap down. The Dow is closing in on support of 12,290, which is about 10 spx points away. Technology shows very little evidence of bottoming but the comp is closing in on the oct 2011 high of 2750. And Rut is at '11 highs currently. There is a case for a support firming, but with the FB ipo not performing, and no one wanting to be long into the weekend, weakness continues for now, drawn to the 200 dma's.
 
After 6 days down in a row for the SPX, day 7 was the bounce. It was humorous seeing cnbc participants guessing where the Facebook ip would top out. Some went as high as 90-100. The situation has been a debacle, further decreasing the trust of the public. SPX put in a low just below support of 1300. Some are predicting another wash out move to unch for the year at 1258, or back to the trendline from the 666 low at around 1200. Most indecis have found their bottom at prior highs, or support zones. With the last move from ~1420 to ~1295, this move up could stall at the 50% retracement of ~1355, corresponding with April lows. Historically, the high for the summer is in, and the low for the year comes in the July - Oct period.
 
SPX is now 20 points from the 1291 low. Decision time. there needs to be a higher swing low placed near here for the next move higher coinciding with some nice fib levels, retest the 1292 level, or flush out more sellers by targeting the 1280 zone. For now support zones on the ndx, comp, dow 30 and 20, and rut continue to hold. The euro and crude continue to be under pressure, but gld and slv appear to be finding a footing. After the close of Europe, U.S. equities have appeared to firm, let's see if this will be the case today.
 
Creating the largest VIX and ES bar for some time, the market reversed the enthusiasm for the weekend's news with gusto. The SPX has found it's range for now. Another move lower would potentially create an inverted head and shoulder pattern. If 1260 breaks it is lights out for the bulls, and it would have significant election ramifications. Most major indices are holding a similar pattern, and the metals are attempting to bounce. Historically the highs are in for the summer with 1340 as the current cap, and 1360 as further resistance. Headlines should be the main driver for now.
 
'Quiet so far awaiting the fed announcement. As stated above, 1360 was the upper end of the range of resistance. The market may be setting up for another rally on the fed meeting and sell on the announcement scenario. I'm leaning towards a slight up day, making a fifth in a row, and then a pull back to 1320 to make a higher swing low, but who knows. The Rut was the final index to break above the neckline and it is likely the range for the summer will be 1275-1400. Of course the Fed could say something quite stroking and 1400 is hit this week. Good trading.
 
Markets are now sitting at their upper ranges from earlier this month. I was expecting this area to be targeted, just not in 1 day. If the higher low is put in, it will be in this zone. Bulls need to hold this area, or a retest of the low will be in the cards.
 
Market is crying for more QE, the only way to produce an imaginary economy with fake growth is with more QE from BUBBLE ben bernanke.

So keep it coming, the market will sell off until it finally get what it wants, its become so dependent on these handouts that without them there is no economy and there is no market place.
 
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