we could absolutely see some volatility with multiple witching. But i would think it would be subdued before a pop in the vix. thanks for the good point.
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SPX/ES Market Outlook
- Thread starter EliteThink
- Start date
So stopped out of my light short position on this move higher to 1390's.
Thinking the market could move to 1425 resistance.
Althought watching today the nyse ticks really just are not really showing that much net buying.
I will continue to watch price action SIT ON HANDS but I would look to possible short any move towards 1425, until then I will just intraday trade for some smaller moves.
Also note that Transports have Weekly downtrend resistance line around ~5300.
Thinking the market could move to 1425 resistance.
Althought watching today the nyse ticks really just are not really showing that much net buying.
I will continue to watch price action SIT ON HANDS but I would look to possible short any move towards 1425, until then I will just intraday trade for some smaller moves.
Also note that Transports have Weekly downtrend resistance line around ~5300.
Sorry to hear about the exit. Many are experiencing the same.
Fed day's rally was explosive, with the vix actualy rising as well. Today the DOW is straddling the unchanged line but the TRANS are up a decent amount. AAPL has also backed off from the newest high of over 600. Fed day created a gap up but it might be a bit early to mention the need for a gap fill. If AAPL or the DOW marches forward SPX should easily take out 1402, and then the next slight resistance level, of which all levels have been largly ignored, is at 1440. The DOW is working on its 7th up day in a row, a sign of a market's disconnect with reality. Good trading.
Fed day's rally was explosive, with the vix actualy rising as well. Today the DOW is straddling the unchanged line but the TRANS are up a decent amount. AAPL has also backed off from the newest high of over 600. Fed day created a gap up but it might be a bit early to mention the need for a gap fill. If AAPL or the DOW marches forward SPX should easily take out 1402, and then the next slight resistance level, of which all levels have been largly ignored, is at 1440. The DOW is working on its 7th up day in a row, a sign of a market's disconnect with reality. Good trading.
transports respecting the flag in yellow arows at 5266 upper channel line and add in the break below channel ,its forming a megaphone ,5266 is a ledge in mp(red line) ,if it can break above, the yellow circle is 5320-5336 resistance..edit ..that bear flag combined with the break below and return to the upper channel line has formed a small inverted head and shoulder pattern
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Look at this chart, the weekly close on the Transports is right at trendline resistance. It looks like it will close at resistance.
Yesterday the it probed over the trendline and retreated.
This is an important area of resistance for the transports.
Also look at the TF futures (Russel 2K)
Still have not gone over that 835 area. Another sign of resistance.
The indicies could continue to push higher but to do so it will need a break out of the transports as well as the russell to move the broad market higher.
5384 in the transports is an important area if this broad market move continues.
Yesterday the it probed over the trendline and retreated.
This is an important area of resistance for the transports.
Also look at the TF futures (Russel 2K)
Still have not gone over that 835 area. Another sign of resistance.
The indicies could continue to push higher but to do so it will need a break out of the transports as well as the russell to move the broad market higher.
5384 in the transports is an important area if this broad market move continues.
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I'm of the opinion that the sp has stayed fairly even lately. Coming up is the end of the quarter with quarterly reports to be sent out by all the institutions to their clients. I think that puts a strong possibility that the institutions will want to keep stock prices up for the rest of the month. I put on a March quarterly iron condor for 1435, 1430, 1370, & 1365 for a credit of .80. Figure any price decline will wait another week.
My opinion is some old indicators like Transports don't matter much in today's markets. As I posted months ago, the bull leg since mid January is due to leadership from big cap tech. What I posted was until such time as I saw weakness in AAPL/IBM/MSFT,
there is no reason to expect a correction in markets. SPX was in the low 1300s when I posted this.
IBM crossing $200 and holding was very important. AAPL isn't a good indicator because it went up so fast its decoupled from the indexes. But IBM is more of a steady, normal trend with ups and downs.
So for anyone looking for an end of the bull leg, I'd keep an eye on IBM and maybe others like MSFT and ORCL. If they stall out, that could be the end of the bull trend. But something like IBM could go to $250 wouldn't surprise me. That's a lot of points on the Dow.
Like many have posted, don't try to guess the end or the level. Watch the indicators for when these leaders stop climbing.
there is no reason to expect a correction in markets. SPX was in the low 1300s when I posted this.
IBM crossing $200 and holding was very important. AAPL isn't a good indicator because it went up so fast its decoupled from the indexes. But IBM is more of a steady, normal trend with ups and downs.
So for anyone looking for an end of the bull leg, I'd keep an eye on IBM and maybe others like MSFT and ORCL. If they stall out, that could be the end of the bull trend. But something like IBM could go to $250 wouldn't surprise me. That's a lot of points on the Dow.
Like many have posted, don't try to guess the end or the level. Watch the indicators for when these leaders stop climbing.
Great points.
spy is currently below the opening of the gap open on Friday and moving lower after European markets declined for the day. Trans have developed a sideways channel for 2012 so far, crude is off today without a positive effect on the index. aapl continues to hit new highs, up 50% for the year, even with the comp and ndx off for the day. One would think this might be a good place to look for taking some off the table. Most pundits have jumped on the 'spx is going to 1440-1450 bandwagon'. i feel choppiness is starting to set in after the large up move in march. A move lower on the SPX cannot begin to be confirmed until the 1386 swing low is taken out. Good trading.
spy is currently below the opening of the gap open on Friday and moving lower after European markets declined for the day. Trans have developed a sideways channel for 2012 so far, crude is off today without a positive effect on the index. aapl continues to hit new highs, up 50% for the year, even with the comp and ndx off for the day. One would think this might be a good place to look for taking some off the table. Most pundits have jumped on the 'spx is going to 1440-1450 bandwagon'. i feel choppiness is starting to set in after the large up move in march. A move lower on the SPX cannot begin to be confirmed until the 1386 swing low is taken out. Good trading.