Interesting, thanks.
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SPX/ES Market Outlook
- Thread starter EliteThink
- Start date
News appears to be turning negative and focusing on Europe more. After comments from a rating agency, the EUR/USD turned lower and futures followed. Once the cash opened, the small gap was quickly filled. dj trans are up early, and are often leading, so a positive day could be in the works. Gold (gld) continues to show strength this past week. Recoupling with the Euro may be occuring, and there is a large technical case for moving down. Even so, seasonal strength can overcome that case. spx 1292 was hit the day after the prediction on Monday, 4 days early. Best guess is 1305 or 1272 by Friday.
There doesn't seem to be any drive to get to 1300 and there is no real drive to go down much either. I'm still mildly bullish to flat towards this and next week. I trust Atticus here so will watch what he says. ECB meeting tomorrow may not bring much as a drop is being built and we may still be on hold until we get a signal from the Jan 26 fed meeting. That might be a good week to go easy.
Looking at the dow and s&p charts (including those in the above posts) suggest to this newbie that we are at the same point in the cycle as we were in July 2010 with a long uptrend (not downturn) in the forecast, IMHO but I'm trading the weeklies so I'm prepared for both by not being overly aggressive.
I see alot of good trading opportunities right now in the weeklies. Blew the last of my wad buying power yesterday just before close on the Jan 2 wkly Pcln 460/465 bull put spread which should buy me a steak dinner at the Morton House should I get there again. A 465/470 would have bot me a couple steaks but I'm being conservative and there is another week after this one to trade.
I'm still learning the vertical credit spread business but I'm now looking to branch out to other strategies on the debit spread side as soon as I learn more about it. I like this thread and was thinking about starting it myself but Elite Think was more on the ball and kudos go to him.
Is the market being reinforced now that the Republicans have finally decided to either Mitt or get off the Pot?
Looking at the dow and s&p charts (including those in the above posts) suggest to this newbie that we are at the same point in the cycle as we were in July 2010 with a long uptrend (not downturn) in the forecast, IMHO but I'm trading the weeklies so I'm prepared for both by not being overly aggressive.
I see alot of good trading opportunities right now in the weeklies. Blew the last of my wad buying power yesterday just before close on the Jan 2 wkly Pcln 460/465 bull put spread which should buy me a steak dinner at the Morton House should I get there again. A 465/470 would have bot me a couple steaks but I'm being conservative and there is another week after this one to trade.
I'm still learning the vertical credit spread business but I'm now looking to branch out to other strategies on the debit spread side as soon as I learn more about it. I like this thread and was thinking about starting it myself but Elite Think was more on the ball and kudos go to him.
Is the market being reinforced now that the Republicans have finally decided to either Mitt or get off the Pot?
thanks, great to have you here.
More of the same, an overnight rally and new overnight weekly high. Thus far the overnight highs have largely held frustrating domestic traders. To significantly break the overnight high SPX has to breach 1305. Historically, many short term trend reversals have taken place after a gap. SPX now has close to a 100 point move from the low of Dec 19th. ATR5 is now down to <10, and the VIX continues to sit near lows, typically coinciding with short term overextensions to the upside. NDX and Comp have not broken through their Oct highs and are lagging. Most benchmarks are surfing their 10 dmaâs. With just a little weakness in the ES, and 1280 breaking to the downside, there could be a pull back to the 1247 level. Good Trading.
A small overnight rally did materialize and then an impressive move lower. Even more impressive is the EUR/USD move to a new long term low. For the first time in a month spx and dj30 are below their 10 dma. With Tuesday's gap now filled we could see this rally ensue. The pattern the last few weeks has been a large move up early in the week, and range the rest of the week. that being said, the market is still a little overextended. Restistance is spx 1297 and 1307, then not much to 1345. Good trading.
Bad news over the weekend beginning with the downgrade of France. The ES is up 25 points from Friday's low. Expecting Cash to open higher at least 10 points. should be a blow off top or spx will assault 1307 shortly thereafter.
Quote from EliteThink:
Bad news over the weekend beginning with the downgrade of France. The ES is up 25 points from Friday's low. Expecting Cash to open higher at least 10 points. should be a blow off top or spx will assault 1307 shortly thereafter.
But this is not an outlook, it is a description of that is happening that can change at any time.
A proper outlook requires specific direction and targets for profits. Only then its performance can be evaluated.