SPX Credit Spread Trader

Anyone have an opinion on March PUT spreads ? 1240/1235 would be 55 away on the short side (below the beginning of the year lows) and it looks like .25 midpoint at this time.... :eek:
 
Quote from Synaptic:

Anyone have an opinion on March PUT spreads ? 1240/1235 would be 55 away on the short side (below the beginning of the year lows) and it looks like .25 midpoint at this time.... :eek:
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I did put on a sm #contracts on a 1240/1225p/s...to finance my 1325 long call....watching it closely...if we get over 1300 then the chances of spx coming down below 1250 are fairly small...I think..right now probability of exp at 1240 is less than %10..at %7.82
 
Not bad strikes but $0.25 midpoint means a fill better than $0.15 might not be likely given distance OTM and time to expiration. Not sure if credit is worth it but 1240 does not look likely by MAR expiration.

Quote from Synaptic:

Anyone have an opinion on March PUT spreads ? 1240/1235 would be 55 away on the short side (below the beginning of the year lows) and it looks like .25 midpoint at this time.... :eek:
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Quote from optioncoach:

Not bad strikes but $0.25 midpoint means a fill better than $0.15 might not be likely given distance OTM and time to expiration. Not sure if credit is worth it but 1240 does not look likely by MAR expiration.
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Forgive the naivete but what is exactly meant by the 'midpoint'?

sd
 
Well the H&S pattern that formed between DEC and FEB broke out to the downside briefly and quickly jumped higher. Right now all technicals are pointing higher but we did bump off today the 5 year highs and pulled back. When you are near a significant support/resistance point, it is the follow up action you need to watch closely to determine short-term direction. If we bleed back to 1290 then the same resistance at 1295 would have held 3 times now on closing prices and it may be testing it before it brakes higher.

SO right now, the market is in the continuation of the uptrend but nouncing off some small resistance in the 1295 range. If it holds we will be stuck in a smaller tight range of 1280/1295. If it breaks, I think there are still some nice headwinds, first at 1300 and then in general so that by March expiration I cannot see us breaking 1315 without some unexpected amazing surge.

Bottom line is that we are still rangebound in the 1275/1315 ranges in my opinion from here until MAR expiration. APR expiration is still a tad out to forecast or trade. For APR it might be safe to peek out over 1200 on s hort puts BUT I would not do it yet. Let's see what happens at this key resistance point first.


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So Cash,

Did you adjust your bear call at the end of the trading day?

Quote from CashCache:

My line in the sand is 1295, but I make it a point not to close down or roll until after 2:30 ET. By then it seems the market makes up its mind on the direction.

If the SPX closes above 1295 today, it is going to be a little expensive to get out of my 1310/1320 considering such little time left in this month, and April just too far away from me to comfortably roll to. My only choice now (as I see it) is to shut it down.

I was able to pick up a 1330/1340 today for a .50 credit, so that will offset my debit should I close down the 1310/1320 today.

Any suggestions?

Thanks,

-Cash
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Nope. I had my finger on the ejection button, but once I saw the price tipping over, I decided to hold off. We'll see what tomorrow brings... To be completely honest, I had the buy order in 3 different times before I finally canceled it for good.

In preparation for the rollout, I did pick up the SPX 1330/1340 for .50 today. Theta can't work fast enough for me at this point.

-Cash

Quote from rdemyan:

So Cash,

Did you adjust your bear call at the end of the trading day?
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