SPX Credit Spread Trader

Quote from Sailing:

FYI,

People here in the Northern states, (Michigan), are receiving their natural gas bills.

It's the talk of the town.... most bills are 2.5 to 3.5 times what they were the previous month. For example: our cottage we don't live in, just visit, last month $56, this month $181. Our house, last month $120, this month $399.97

It will be interesting as the month of January continues....

I only comment on this as other bills (X-mas) and continued heat bills, along with Fed rates, and slowing housing.... Hmmmm.... what's ahead?

Murray
More...

Hey Murray, that's some good info to know and things like that should have a dramatic effect on public buying power in 06, even though nat gas is probably 'another' item that is left out of the inflation numbers :confused:

FWIW I think this market will continue to pull in for some time with the exception of some window dressing by fund managers maybe tomorrow. Beyond that I see some pullback coming and wrote some Jan 1300/1310 bear calls the other day for $.45 that's a little more aggressive than I normally go, but my studies don't see a SET of 1300 or above for Jan expiration. Looking to add some bull puts when this mkt comes in a bit more.

Best trading to Phil and all that follow the credit spread thread in 06! :)
 
OK, got it (makes a lot of sense)...

Quote from optioncoach:

Buying put spreads would not be a HEDGE for me, I would be taking a directional position ATM. My puts are at 1165/1175 and I see no need to hedge them at all right now since they are almost 100 points OTM with 21 days to expiration. I feel pretty confident as of today that those strikes will expire worthless and looking to make more money on a pure technical directional play. I am talking about a pure directional play on the SPX with long puts.

THis is not really related to my credit spreads, just an additional position I am taking on potentially.
More...
 
Coach,

Lotta movement this morning .....Would you make any moves today or wait until next Tues (seeing what the close looks like) ?

Quote from optioncoach:

If you look at the charts I have been attaching on this page and on the previous page and BELOW you will see the support line I drew which has been holding. Today the SPX pretty much closed right on the line or just below it depending on how you draw it so due to the light volume and the margin for drawing error I would see we are on the cusp.

Tomorrow should really be a dead day but if it drops a lot and closes there, the support might indeed be broken and I will be adding some long puts to profit from the move lower, possible to the 1240 area and below but not sure.
More...
 
Donna,

Your call spread is looking pretty good right now, looks like I may have missed an opportunity (at least short term). I'm at about break even on my put spread with the recent dips. Volume should start to pick up as next week moves along. That should give us an idea as to whether this break down through support is for real or not.

ryan
 
Just for fun on the way down I bought 15 JAN XSP 125 Puts @ $1.20. As the chart below shows, the support is broken, whether it be on small volume or not and next week could bring some more selling or just a pullback to previous support and then more downward moves. If the market does keep moving lower I will most likely sell some lower strike XSP puts to roll into a bear put spread at a greatly reduced cost.

Remember this is not a hedge for me since my 1165/1175 spreads are way OTM and safe as far as I am concerned. I am still trying to close them for $0.05 and then look to open new put spreads on the dip or wait until sometime next week to grab some really deep OTM Feb put spreads. However on this downturn I doubt I can get out for $0.05 so if the premium is nice, I might just sell some more of the 1175/1165 spreads to bring in a little more premium.

Let the games begin....
 

Attachments

Coach,

The support at 1250 (previous low) is now broken. The next support is 1245. What's the next support after that?

Quote from optioncoach:

Just for fun on the way down I bought 15 JAN XSP 125 Puts @ $1.20. As the chart below shows, the support is broken, whether it be on small volume or not and next week could bring some more selling or just a pullback to previous support and then more downward moves. If the market does keep moving lower I will most likely sell some lower strike XSP puts to roll into a bear put spread at a greatly reduced cost.

Remember this is not a hedge for me since my 1165/1175 spreads are way OTM and safe as far as I am concerned. I am still trying to close them for $0.05 and then look to open new put spreads on the dip or wait until sometime next week to grab some really deep OTM Feb put spreads. However on this downturn I doubt I can get out for $0.05 so if the premium is nice, I might just sell some more of the 1175/1165 spreads to bring in a little more premium.

Let the games begin....
More...
 
Coach,

I have oex 590 Feb calls. Was looking for an uptrend.
But, now that the support is broken, do you think converting to a 580-590 bear call (Feb) is too risky.

If the market trends down, I could buy it back for less at the end of Jan. So, I would not hold till Feb expr.

Thanks.
 
Coach,

We've been playing with the XSPs....... it appears that the credit received for the same SPX position is a little better on a percentage basis.... and you're not fighting the b/a as much.

Would you agree?

Murray
 
Next immediate support appears to be the 50 day moving average which takes it to, as of today, around 1240 and the first fib retracement seen on my chart takes it to about 1235 so that zone appears to be the next short-term target/support. After that I do not really see any support until 1210/1200 area or so.

Quote from andysmith:

Coach,

The support at 1250 (previous low) is now broken. The next support is 1245. What's the next support after that?
More...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top