I'm sure there is more fun to come for the week or even last hour of the day - that's about as close to a prediction as you'll ever get from me lol.
I'm still long delta/short vega on XEO so today's movement SO FAR is quite appreciated.
Momoney.
SPX Credit Spread Trader
- Thread starter El OchoCinco
- Start date
I'm sure there is more fun to come for the week or even last hour of the day - that's about as close to a prediction as you'll ever get from me lol.
I'm still long delta/short vega on XEO so today's movement SO FAR is quite appreciated.
Momoney.
Unless there is some major change I will not do any call spreads for JAN. I only have the JAN put position (-120 JAN 1165/1175 Puts).
Trust me I am very tempted, lol but I decided I would not do anything until after this expiration and my margin is freed up so I can evaluate this recent price breakout and look for reasonable resistance or price projections to select call strikes. For now I am looking at more puts possible at 1200 or 1205 but would need some pulback first.
As for calls, I would most likely go as far out as possible since I already have the puts so I can take a $0.10 credit for a little juice if I need it.
As for calls, I would most likely go as far out as possible since I already have the puts so I can take a $0.10 credit for a little juice if I need it.
Quote from Synaptic:
Wouldn't you be just a little bit interested in seeing what the 1340/1345 might look like ?
Hello, I have to say whether it's a breakout, or short covering doesn't matter. Price has broken through prior resistance and is going up. The supply demand balance has shifted to one of demand, that's what price is telling us right now, and it's all we need to know. Any positons or strategy need to be based upon the here and now, not what one hopes or fears, or wants to see happen.
Certainly there was, is, and will be some who shorted, or are still shorting having to buy at some point. There is also just buying going on. How long it'll last and where it ends, no one really knows. Forgive me if I receiving the wrong message concerning your statement. It appears you have some doubt as to what price is indicating. Is it because it's contrary to yours and others positions here, or is there another reason I may be missing? It is what it is, and that is what we need to realize and deal with accordingly.
This is exactly the reason why, which Optioncoach and others have stressed that Risk Management, and limiting the capital exposed to anyone position or strategy is CRUCIAL for staying in the markets for the long run.
May each of you here in a spread situation have planned accordingly, and executed it to avoid loss or minimize it.
Good Trading and God Bless!
Kelly
I just have to post this. Back in the day, I had a subscription to Schaffer's Wealthbuilder when I really didn't know what I was doing. Needless to say, it lost most of the time. Now it just gives me a good laugh every once in a while.
I'd love to hear what you think about this position! Talk about standing in front of a train and hoping it can screech to a stop!
*** DO NOT FOLLOW THIS ADVICE ***
THE NEUTRAL TO BEARISH CREDIT SPREAD RECOMMENDATION IS TO SIMULTANEOUSLY SELL THE S&P 100 INDEX NOVEMBER 585 CALL (OEBLQ), AND BUY THE S&P 100 INDEX NOVEMBER 590 CALL (OEBLR) WITH A LIMIT OF 0.70 CREDIT OR BETTER FOR THE SPREAD. IF YOUR CREDIT SPREAD ORDER DOES NOT GET FILLED BY THE CLOSE TODAY, CANCEL YOUR ORDERS AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT TRADE.
OEX IS CURRENTLY AT 581.93.
sd
I'd love to hear what you think about this position! Talk about standing in front of a train and hoping it can screech to a stop!
*** DO NOT FOLLOW THIS ADVICE ***
THE NEUTRAL TO BEARISH CREDIT SPREAD RECOMMENDATION IS TO SIMULTANEOUSLY SELL THE S&P 100 INDEX NOVEMBER 585 CALL (OEBLQ), AND BUY THE S&P 100 INDEX NOVEMBER 590 CALL (OEBLR) WITH A LIMIT OF 0.70 CREDIT OR BETTER FOR THE SPREAD. IF YOUR CREDIT SPREAD ORDER DOES NOT GET FILLED BY THE CLOSE TODAY, CANCEL YOUR ORDERS AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT TRADE.
OEX IS CURRENTLY AT 581.93.
sd
IMHO,
That's not as ridiculous as it sounds. I personally wouldn't take it because it doesn't fit my entry criteria.
However, because it is NTM, if the index moves against it, it won't lose money as quickly as you might think.
Theta is around 18 and Delta is 19 for this spread. It's also obviously short vega, which if the index does move against it will be beneficial.
It's clear that this position has been based on their technical analysis of there being a top reached (rather than getting in the way of a speeding train), if that is the case then it is no more ridiculous than any other trading decisions based on TA.
Due to the 0.70 credit, the break even point is 585.70
Using IV, it has around 75% probability of making some kind of profit.
It has around 72% probability of making the full credit.
[Edit] That's a 72% chance of making a 16.28% Return on Risk in just over 2 days - that's more than some people make all year.
It has a risk/reward profile of 10:1.4 which is far higher than the 20:1 and 30:1 that some of the FOTM credit spreads I've seen here have, and if it gets in trouble it won't be as expensive to buy back relative to the initial credit received as compared with FOTM counterparts. There is no SET to contend with. You can trade the options and exit the position right up to the P.M. settlement.
Momoney.
That's not as ridiculous as it sounds. I personally wouldn't take it because it doesn't fit my entry criteria.
However, because it is NTM, if the index moves against it, it won't lose money as quickly as you might think.
Theta is around 18 and Delta is 19 for this spread. It's also obviously short vega, which if the index does move against it will be beneficial.
It's clear that this position has been based on their technical analysis of there being a top reached (rather than getting in the way of a speeding train), if that is the case then it is no more ridiculous than any other trading decisions based on TA.
Due to the 0.70 credit, the break even point is 585.70
Using IV, it has around 75% probability of making some kind of profit.
It has around 72% probability of making the full credit.
[Edit] That's a 72% chance of making a 16.28% Return on Risk in just over 2 days - that's more than some people make all year.
It has a risk/reward profile of 10:1.4 which is far higher than the 20:1 and 30:1 that some of the FOTM credit spreads I've seen here have, and if it gets in trouble it won't be as expensive to buy back relative to the initial credit received as compared with FOTM counterparts. There is no SET to contend with. You can trade the options and exit the position right up to the P.M. settlement.
Momoney.