SPX Credit Spread Trader

rdemyan -- outstanding! Thank you for the effort.

Quote from rdemyan:

Okay, here's some more results from the data. These results I would venture to say are 'hard' in the sense that they are not subject to any bias or interpretation on my part (other than the ranges I selected to look at).

1) 110 expiration-to-expiration periods are included starting from October 20, 1995 through December 17, 2004

2) Of those 110 periods, the SPX saw an increase in 61 of those periods (that is, the SPX was higher at the end of the period than at the beginning of the period). A decrease occurred in 49 of those periods.

3) The largest increase in the SPX during a single period was 11.15% from 9/21/2001 to 10/19/2001. The average VIX during this period was 33.78.

5) The largest decrease in the SPX during a single period was 16.88% from 8/17/2001 to 9/21/2001 (the period preceding the largest increase!). The average VIX during this period was 28.94.

6) For the 61 periods that the SPX was higher at the end of the period than at the beginning, here are approximate ranges:

8 times the %change in the SPX was less than 1%
6 times the %change in the SPX was between 1% and 2%
26 times the %change in the SPX was between 2% and 5%
21 times the %change in the SPX was greater than 5%

7) For the 49 periods that the SPX was lower at the end of the period than at the beginning, here are approximate ranges:

13 times the %change in the SPX was less than 1%
11 times the %change in the SPX was between 1% and 2%
13 times the %change in the SPX was between 2% and 5%
12 times the %change in the SPX was greater than 5%


Wow! 1/3rd of the time that the SPX increased it increased by 5% or more.
 
Coach,

Are 30 cents worth the risk?

I would wait and see how the market is evolving.

My 2 cents.

Quote from optioncoach:

Updated Positions:

Well we made it above 1200 on some strength and are still going up (now you know why I was reluctant to jump in on the call side for NOV!). I decided to free up some margin and just ride a new position into DEC.

Remember my positions were:

-110 SPX NOV 1100/1115 Put Spreads @ $0.50

- 90 SPX NOV 1150/1160 Put Spreads @ $0.65


Here is what I did:

1. I closed the 1100/1115 Put Spreads for net profit of $0.25 or $2,200 after commissions to free up margin for DEC.

2. I sold:

-300 SPX DEC 1135/1140 Put Spreads @ $0.30

Credit = $9,000
Risk = $150,000
Return = 6%.

3. Still have 90 1150/1160 Put Spreads for NOV.


Basically I have a great year of returns and just want to protect them and take advantage of NOV/DEC strength. Today was an upday but still grabbed the puts to take advantage of the time to expiration. I still have plenty of free margin to add to my positions on a down move. My goal is to hopefully close out the position by end of NOV and then place JAN spreads to close out DEC for a good year.

With about 25% return to date I would rather grab a little more premium and play it safer instead of being more aggressive and risk all that hard work this year (which really started in APRIL so imagine if I was trading from JAN).

So I added another $9,000 in premium for DEC expiration and can increase that with more puts or even calls if the market really explodes and some deep OTM call strikes look nice.


So summary of positions:

- 90 SPX NOV 1150/1160 Put Spreads @ $0.65

-300 SPX DEC 1135/1140 Put Spreads @ $0.30


I also will update the SPX/Weekly calendar as that expiration approaches tomorrow.

Phil
 
Quote from piccon:

Coach,

Are 30 cents worth the risk?

I would wait and see how the market is evolving.

My 2 cents.

Notice it is only a 5 point spread, so still 6% credit as Coach states. But I kinda agree with you. I really don't want to open a put position on an upday myself. I'd rather miss out on some action than to get in on the wrong side of the swings. Maybe I am spoiled by this non-trending market though. If we have started an uptrend, getting into some puts here is a great idea.
 
Coach,

For the 300 SPX DEC 1135/1140 Put Spreads @ $0.30, did you mean

Credit = $9,000
Risk = $300,000
Return = 3%





Quote from optioncoach:

Updated Positions:

Well we made it above 1200 on some strength and are still going up (now you know why I was reluctant to jump in on the call side for NOV!). I decided to free up some margin and just ride a new position into DEC.

Remember my positions were:

-110 SPX NOV 1100/1115 Put Spreads @ $0.50

- 90 SPX NOV 1150/1160 Put Spreads @ $0.65


Here is what I did:

1. I closed the 1100/1115 Put Spreads for net profit of $0.25 or $2,200 after commissions to free up margin for DEC.

2. I sold:

-300 SPX DEC 1135/1140 Put Spreads @ $0.30

Credit = $9,000
Risk = $150,000
Return = 6%.

3. Still have 90 1150/1160 Put Spreads for NOV.


Basically I have a great year of returns and just want to protect them and take advantage of NOV/DEC strength. Today was an upday but still grabbed the puts to take advantage of the time to expiration. I still have plenty of free margin to add to my positions on a down move. My goal is to hopefully close out the position by end of NOV and then place JAN spreads to close out DEC for a good year.

With about 25% return to date I would rather grab a little more premium and play it safer instead of being more aggressive and risk all that hard work this year (which really started in APRIL so imagine if I was trading from JAN).

So I added another $9,000 in premium for DEC expiration and can increase that with more puts or even calls if the market really explodes and some deep OTM call strikes look nice.


So summary of positions:

- 90 SPX NOV 1150/1160 Put Spreads @ $0.65

-300 SPX DEC 1135/1140 Put Spreads @ $0.30


I also will update the SPX/Weekly calendar as that expiration approaches tomorrow.

Phil
 
Quote from andysmith:

Coach,

For the 300 SPX DEC 1135/1140 Put Spreads @ $0.30, did you mean

Credit = $9,000
Risk = $300,000
Return = 3%

Risk is 5 bucks X 100 X 300 = 150k

Yes?
 
Got into 10 SPX Nov 1150/1160 credit spread today at .65 before the market headed North. 6.5% return with 11 days till expiration. Will be looking to capture more premium next week depending on market direction - would like to get another 3% if possible.

Hootie
 
I'm back from a two week break and have done some thinking and wanted to get some feedback. Coach Phil, you are providing an excellent free service here and I am very grateful to you. The following are genuine, honest thoughts and not meant to undermine Phil's efforts.

I love credit spreads and have had success with them for the past few months.... BUT I'm increasingly troubled by the reaction of almost all the current/former professional traders (almost all of them significantly more exerienced than Coach) who visit this site. They just cannot believe the risk/reward we're undertaking. Now if you are trading a few thousand $, no problem. But if you are trading six figures (even if it is less than 50% of total account) the risk/reward seems very out of balance. I'm struggling with this notion and some insight/thoughts would be helpful.
 
Ryan:

I got out on Monday, as I started to get nervous that we were gonna head up. I only got out and did not actually roll the spread. I'll now be looking to get back in, I hope to get some of the premium back.

Good Luck!

Quote from ryank:

SPX is above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving average. I am going to look over ways to hedge my short 1240 call or maybe roll up. I know there are a number of us with the 1240/1250 spread, are you planning any changes at this point?

ryan
 
Andy:

The same thoughts have crossed my mind. I would like to pose two counter points:

1) The less obnoxious professional traders that have posted here
I think may have realized that credit spreads, if properly managed (which is what Coach strongly advocates), are not as bad as they first thought. Still, I don't believe that they would trade these positions, themselves.

2) Professionals can constantly monitor and adjust their positions. For me as a retail trader, I can't do that, so credit spreads are easier to trade. Also, I believe I've seen posts from a professional trader (Michael) in another forum, which you belong to, that essentially say (if I got this correct), that you can literally put on any trade you want. Ultimately, it's the adjustments that matter and rolling with the punches until you can get out with some profit or a minimal loss. But again, he's a professional and has the time, knowledge and experience to do that.

My only reservation about credit spreads, is the black swan event. Other than that, I feel totally comfortable with trading the SPX credit spreads (but not stocks, under any circumstance).

If you don't mind my saying, I thought that your positions in October were not far enough OTM and as a result you went on a roller coaster ride that was emotionally draining (as you know I had a worse experience, so I know what you went through). Fortunately you didn't lose any money (or minimal), but it's probably got you thinking about the whole strategy (also been there). My feeling is I would rather give up some premium than go through that again.

Finally, you say that the risk/reward seems very out of balance. Shouldn't we factor probability of success into that "equation"?

Good luck with whatever strategy you decide to trade.

Quote from andysmith:

I'm back from a two week break and have done some thinking and wanted to get some feedback. Coach Phil, you are providing an excellent free service here and I am very grateful to you. The following are genuine, honest thoughts and not meant to undermine Phil's efforts.

I love credit spreads and have had success with them for the past few months.... BUT I'm increasingly troubled by the reaction of almost all the current/former professional traders (almost all of them significantly more exerienced than Coach) who visit this site. They just cannot believe the risk/reward we're undertaking. Now if you are trading a few thousand $, no problem. But if you are trading six figures (even if it is less than 50% of total account) the risk/reward seems very out of balance. I'm struggling with this notion and some insight/thoughts would be helpful.
 
Yes it is $150,000 risk not $300,000 risk.

Also, I did not enter this position today will full margin so if we do have a good down day I will add more puts.

Basically I am bullish through the the early part of Thanksgiving and therefore chose the put strikes I did as there are several levels of support between the market and the strike 75 points away. I am looking at sideways to upwards movement in NOV.

If we get a good down day back to 1200 then I will add another amount of positions and just ride it to the end of the month. I was happy with the strikes and the return (6%) and will just let time decay work on my NOV position for now. Then after NOV expiration, will look forward to Thanksgiving bounce.

Phil


Quote from Agyar:

Risk is 5 bucks X 100 X 300 = 150k

Yes?
 
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