Quote from optioncoach:
5% returns are based on my targets not on the width of my strikes. My profit goal is 5% a month. People can choose a more agressive profit target or a more conservative target. One major loss will have no affect on my portfolio because I do not have 100% of my money in this strategy and due to the way the indexes move, I can take a partial loss and get out if the market is collapsing or rocketing. With a spread I get a partial hedge. You cannot just say that it would wipe out 75% of my base, I am speaking from experience, even with losses.
Phil
No, I did not say that you had 100% of your total capital in credit spread. But I HAVE seen your spreadsheets. The way you calculate your returns is you multiply the number of positions X the width of the handles. 100 positions for a 1175/1185 spread, according to your spreadsheet, is calculated as 100,000 margin (100X1000). 115 spreads for a handle of 15 equals 172,500.
You divide the credit received into the amount of margin to get your percentage. 2K of credit received, if kept, would equal, acc to your spreadsheet, 2% returns. If you use only, say, half of your available capital, then I think a more honest way to express your returns would be half of 2%, which would be 1%. Otherwise, you are using two different standards: a more generous standard if you keep the credit, and a different one in the unlikely event of losing all of your margin.
Based on the example above, a gap to 1175 or lower by exp, you would lose 100%. of your margin. That might not represent all of your capital, but such a loss would not speak highly of the supposed high returns for credit spread.
That you speak from experience (and success, so far) is irrelevant. The fact is that markets do not have a memory, and they really do not care what your past returns were. Just because you have not lost the whole wad does not mean that you won't. And just because you could properly hedge in the past because of a lack of gaps does not mean that you will so lucky in the future.
Nevertheless, I do wish you luck, and the best.