SPX Credit Spread Trader

Quote from falconview:

Trading Journal

I'm looking for a 200 pt DOW drop this week. How about you?

I have developed a two trade system, so far ( grin! ) that does not trade until the move is over. I'm tempted to trade anticipatory, but not going to do it this morning. Think I'll stick to the safer AFTER the trend has come and gone modus operendi. Gambling is out in my set of rules.
Gambling by anticipating, is a good way to get losses. I want a no lose trading business.
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My number for NDX says (but not confirmed yet) that the bottom would be around 1730 or higher . That is 40 points from current level. Not confirmed, and some distance away, so still risky.

I am so upset, because I missed this down move. I wanted to get in, and I kept stopping myself from getting in because the move is already underway.

Add to your business expense: the missed opportunities.
 
Stanford:

For me yesterday and today is simple for the new candors and all the horizontal/premium positions: stay away. It is a storm. One can surf waves if one likes, but laying on the beach to relax in a storm is a dangerous proposition. The candor/etc games are like the guys who go to have some sun and relaxation in a beach. You do not do it when you have a storm coming, and certainly when the storm is taking place.
 
Falconview:

There is one piece of information that I realize made some bias in my head. Those quoting the Japanese that they would never allow Japanese Yen to go above 85 Yens per USD.

That kept me from going short when market broke 1810 level yesterday, and things moved to the downside. 1810 was corresponding to around 85.10 on USD/Yen. I was thinking 1800 on NDX and 85 on USD/Yen are levels where buyers would be. The models were saying a different story after the NDX was moving down from 1820 back to 1810 and broke it, after 1810 served at the bottom of the morning.


Another lesson I have to relearn: never read the news on markets.

USD/JPY is now at 84, and went down to 83.60. It is telling the Japanese, you brought your Fukushimas and Sakamotos, and I down here showing you the finger. We will see if the Japanese will send some new Mamamotos and Papahiros.

They better send these guys, because I bought the USD/JPY at 84.30, and I am in the red and bleeding. Their bullcrap words caused me to buy their bullcrap. I should have shorted it. I am damn stupid on this one.
 
Trading Journal

"Another lesson I have to relearn: never read the news on mark"

I had to smile when I read this one! I never listen to the market commentary. Like you, I learned the hard way. Use your own judgement or none at all.


STANFORD

For you with the dilemma of paying a subscription recommendation service. I can only give you the same advice I got a number of decades ago.
If you are going to subscribe to a service to trade your money by, this is the story.
The money you are going to invest should be in ten dollar bills. You get the suitcase full, or pillow case bags, or whatever to carry it in. You take it out in the back yard of your house and make a neat little pile with the bills, like a pyramid. Then you strike a match and light it on fire.
When contemplating this little bonfire, you should be reflecting on whether as it burns, the money so burned and going up in flame and smoke will change your life at all. Will this little fire do anything to your future, you present living condition that would be detrimental? If not, then definitely you have a game plan for a subscription service.
 
It seems my trading style is evolving more and more toward a Wednesday, Thursday and Friday trading style using WEEKLY options.
Sometimes you get a clear cut signal on a Monday or Tuesday, but not necessarily always.

My goal remains! Do not gamble! 50 -50 are bad odds. As Cache Landing says, put the EDGE in your corner. My edge is currently the way I choose to make trades. While no system is perfect, it is as perfect as I can make it. We shall see as we go along. Got to make another bunch of money until I break even again. THEN we can think of going into real money. So far this two trade system, seems extrapolated out, only to be good for $48,000 a year? Not enough! Need more trade diversification I think?

Maybe Trade Journal can enlighten me late tomorrow of what to look for in a Short Strangle, for a Thursday - Friday play?
 
Wednesday tomorrow is a mixed signal day for me.
I have no bottom yet on this trend. I have one indicator says maybe it might reach it tomorrow, but nothing concrete yet.

As far as this Tuesday summation goes, it is still some down spiral, though maybe not too much? Pure guessing so far. Will know more by 2 p.m. Wednesday.
 
Quote from falconview:

Trading Journal

"Another lesson I have to relearn: never read the news on mark"

I had to smile when I read this one! I never listen to the market commentary. Like you, I learned the hard way. Use your own judgement or none at all.
More...

Your judgement can be influenced if you hear or read. It is subconscious. The only solution I know is to never read, never hear, etc. It is hard, because one still has to be informed in general.
 
Quote from falconview:



Maybe Trade Journal can enlighten me late tomorrow of what to look for in a Short Strangle, for a Thursday - Friday play?
More...
1731 is about 2% down from 1771. How much are the puts at strike 1730 or below?
 
Trading Journal

Speaking of failure to jump in! I am not of the mind to buy options after your advice. Still, I am experimenting and on Monday I made a scratch paper PUT at the OEX 490 STRIKE. Got in at $8.50 and it now is at $13.50 on a weekly high TIME DECAY week. I was curious what they would do?
That would or should be a profit if one closed it early in the morning tomorrow and took the $7.00 on a one option trade, which would be GROSS + $700 profit. For 4 options that would be $2800. Might do some more of these scratch paper experimental BUYING PUT trades for a while and see if I can make it work as a strategy.
That would be a return of 82% on capital? In one trade if closed today.
Something to try and experiment on scratch paper with for a while and see if I can evolve reliable ways of repeating it on a regular basis?
 
Trading Journal

"Your judgement can be influenced if you hear or read. It is subconscious. The only solution I know is to never read, never hear, etc. It is hard, because one still has to be informed in general."
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I do not listen to, or read anything on the market. I do use CNBC ticker tape on Cable tv here to follow when I do not want to go up to my third floor trading room. However I have the MUTE button on. I just plain do not want to know.

I remember the arguments back in the 80's between Wells Wilder and a bunch of those guys. The consensus back then, was ONLY PRICE counts. Nothing else! I am still working to that consensus. No sense re-inventing the wheel.
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I didn't check your numbers you just gave. The reason was I looked up some stuff on QQQQ ( Sunday ) and it seemed to follow the OEX in the chart pretty much. So does the NDX. Since the OEX can take all my capital that is available, I see no sense in jumping from one index to another.
A study I did, showed I could not handle trading more than $300,000 to $500,000 if I had it available. I certainly don't have that much, but could fairly easily get it I'm sure.
I also looked up the charts on the E Mini. Just briefly in the 15 min chart on Sunday. Got in okay! I think the best one with indicators was with Quote.com? That thing is very erratic. I have no idea of how much money is involved as it jumped around a lot on the chart I took a quick look at. When I'm rich and got money to burn will take another look at it in more detail.
 
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