Quote from huh:
Here is an observation that I wanted to get some opinions on.....
Looking at the 20 day and 10 day EMA's for the past couple months:
Its pretty clear the SPX is bouncing off the 10 day EMA and going higher so the trade seems to be buy debit call spreads at the bounce or open credit puts.
But also looking at the 20 day and 10 day for the past year, it seems like whenever the SPX gets to about 30 points over the 20 day EMA or 20 points over the 10 day EMA the market tends to pullback a bit or either it sits and consolidates for a few days while the 10 day average moves up to within the 15 point range.
What would be a good trade for this situation? For instance looking at a current 10 day EMA of 1502, the upside move would be 1522 before consolidation for a few days or a slight pullback. Would it be better to try a debit put spread once SPX gets to about 1522 (today....assuming it happened) or a CTM or FOTM Call credit spread. The danger with the put position seems to be that if it does consolidate for a few days and then moves higher, you lose on time premium and the upside. The call position, would lose on the upmove but if you get consolidation you may be able to squeak out a small profit on time decay...and of course a good profit on a pull back.
So just wanted to get opinons on how people would trade this situation and how far apart strikes you would use. Again this is for a pretty short term trade time (1-3 days).