SPX Credit Spread Trader

ok, let's say that is actually a fact (aggressive strike selection). i may be a little naive (or poor with math); how come their monthly return is not that high?

my return is 6-10% monthly(most withdrawn and not compounded) for the past 5 years and i think i am very very "nonaggressive".
 
If I had to bet, I would guess they were at the 1475 short strike. There seemed to be a ton of contracts there before expiration. I had positions there but I got out of them ahead of them a week or so before expiration.

My face was white when I saw the set value and realized how much I could have lost if I would have held. (I almost always hold till expiration but didn't last month)
 
Quote from domestic:

ok, let's say that is actually a fact (aggressive strike selection). i may be a little naive (or poor with math); how come their monthly return is not that high?

my return is 6-10% monthly(most withdrawn and not compounded) for the past 5 years and i think i am very very "nonaggressive".
More...

Domestic

Apologies for not backtracking on your posts, but can you give a flavour of your investing 'style' that generates such great returns?

Cheers
James
 
Anybody knows how to calculate RSI(2). I have the right formula but because they use nbrdays up and nbrdays down in the calculation, I may have a number divided by 0 when there are a lot of consecutive up or down days (like last three weeks).

I am doing some backtesting around Stochastic and RSI. I went back 10 years with stochastic and see what happened after a certain period of time when Stochastic reachs a certain point.

I want to do the same thing with RSI but the formula I get doesnt work. I am loking especially for RSI(2), RSI(5).

I can get it with TOS software but I have to go one day at a time. I can write the software that spits the information in seconds.

Anybody's help will be appreciated.

Thanks



Quote from optioncoach:

They may have had aggressive strike selection. {understatement}

Ouch! lol
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Quote from piccon:

Anybody knows how to calculate RSI(2). I have the right formula but because they use nbrdays up and nbrdays down in the calculation, I may have a number divided by 0 when there are a lot of consecutive up or down days (like last three weeks).

I am doing some backtesting around Stochastic and RSI. I went back 10 years with stochastic and see what happened after a certain period of time when Stochastic reachs a certain point.

I want to do the same thing with RSI but the formula I get doesnt work. I am loking especially for RSI(2), RSI(5).

I can get it with TOS software but I have to go one day at a time. I can write the software that spits the information in seconds.

Anybody's help will be appreciated.

Thanks
More...

Here is TS's code:

{ Relative Strength Index; note that the algorithm used here is a simpler and more
efficient mathematical equivalent of the original Wilder algorithm }

inputs:
Price( numericseries ),
Length( numericsimple ) ; { this input assumed to be a constant >= 1 }

variables:
NetChgAvg( 0 ),
TotChgAvg( 0 ),
Change( 0 ),
SF( 1 / Length ), { smoothing factor }
ChgRatio( 0 ) ;

if CurrentBar = 1 then
begin
NetChgAvg = ( Price - Price[Length] ) / Length ;
TotChgAvg = Average( AbsValue( Price - Price[1] ), Length ) ;
end
else
begin
Change = Price - Price[1] ;
NetChgAvg = NetChgAvg[1] + SF * ( Change - NetChgAvg[1] ) ;
TotChgAvg = TotChgAvg[1] + SF * ( AbsValue( Change ) - TotChgAvg[1] ) ;
end ;

if TotChgAvg <> 0 then
ChgRatio = NetChgAvg / TotChgAvg
else
ChgRatio = 0 ;

RSI = 50 * ( ChgRatio + 1 ) ;
 
Quote from jamesbp:

Domestic

Apologies for not backtracking on your posts, but can you give a flavour of your investing 'style' that generates such great returns?

Cheers
James
More...

credit spreads , debit spreads, and long options. most of my trading using the above strategies are on er2 future options. how it is done for profit cannot be easily spelled out here. i do not have too many posts; so checking my history from 2006 should shed some light on one way i have traded.
currently i am long may puts in 760 and the 750's after closing short puts at 725, net credit overall. i am also short calls at 880 and long at 850. all these trades were done at varying times. needless to say, i would love to see a very big drop in the market.
 
Quote from jeffm:

One of the multi-cta pimping brokers sent me their normal end of the month newsletter today. I read it because its an easy way to keep an eye on what various ctas and systems are doing.

Here's a little gem from this month's edition:

In the S&P options market, World Capital and Argus were both caught short calls and will be citing drawdowns of 30-40% for the month. Both mangers have now had a chance to reassess the markets and will be getting back to work this week. Anyone invested in Argus please give us a call to review the changes to his program.

Dayum! That's a pretty nasty spanking there, fellas. I love how it sounds like they got called into the principal's office for a lecture. I guess they won't be cashing any 20% performance checks for awhile...
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LJM slipped up a little bit, also.

http://www.ljmpartners.com/content/history.html
 
Prevail,
Thanks for the quote. But it doesn't solve my problem.


I am looking at RUT RSI(2) at Stockcharts or TOS or anybody else

May 4 RUT 832.88 -> RSI(2) =87.45
May 3 RUT 828.87 -> RSI(2)=76.59
May 2 RUT 828.46 -> RSI(2)=75.5065
May 1 RUT 816.25 -> RSI(2) 21.2039


I can't find out how they come up with these numbers using Wilder's formula

RSI = 100 - [100/1+ (U/D)]

Where U is average of up days and D is average of down days.

When you have consecutive up days, D=0 and the formula doesn't hold. They must use another way to come up with the result above.

I have been talking to TOS and nobody so far can help me find out how they come up with their own numbers.

If anybody knows, please let me know.

Thanks



Quote from Prevail:

Here is TS's code:

{ Relative Strength Index; note that the algorithm used here is a simpler and more
efficient mathematical equivalent of the original Wilder algorithm }

inputs:
Price( numericseries ),
Length( numericsimple ) ; { this input assumed to be a constant >= 1 }

variables:
NetChgAvg( 0 ),
TotChgAvg( 0 ),
Change( 0 ),
SF( 1 / Length ), { smoothing factor }
ChgRatio( 0 ) ;

if CurrentBar = 1 then
begin
NetChgAvg = ( Price - Price[Length] ) / Length ;
TotChgAvg = Average( AbsValue( Price - Price[1] ), Length ) ;
end
else
begin
Change = Price - Price[1] ;
NetChgAvg = NetChgAvg[1] + SF * ( Change - NetChgAvg[1] ) ;
TotChgAvg = TotChgAvg[1] + SF * ( AbsValue( Change ) - TotChgAvg[1] ) ;
end ;

if TotChgAvg <> 0 then
ChgRatio = NetChgAvg / TotChgAvg
else
ChgRatio = 0 ;

RSI = 50 * ( ChgRatio + 1 ) ;
More...
 
Try asking about RSI on the system development board. The people reading there are much more likely to be able to help you.

Or come at your problem from a different direction. RSI is a Relative Strength Index. If your lookback period is only 2 bars, is that really telling you anything special? How much "relative strength" can you have over 2 bars?
 
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