SPX Credit Spread Trader

Quote from TrendSailor:

Thanks guys for ideas. I see no advantage to rolling a bad position forward here either.

I was deep in the money on one of my put spreads up through early this week and sweating the position waiting for a short term trend to reform. The initial market collapse was so sudden that there was really not much time to even take a partial early loss (less than 50%) since no one was trading inside the bid/ask spread at the volume/size I needed to exit. I would have had to pay a very large exit premium nearly as great as a total max loss. So it was pretty much a no-brainer to wait it out for a reversal and hope it would get me at least half way back into my penetraded spread. Early on I shifted physchology to a loss mitigation strategy with an initial objective formed on statistically taking only a 50% or less net total loss. At least I wanted to do this until conditions further stabilized to permit me to reform new Kentucky Windage on the busted technicals.

Another thing to keep in mind is the SET. It might not be as predictable as previous SETs (with small point changes.)

If you look back several years ago in a higher IV environment, the SET point changes could vary wildly.

AZD

The considerable bull power at reversing one particular bad run down (3/1) convinced me that we were not in free fall or lacking conviction from large institutional money. So I predicted a sustainable upside bounce off an irrational oversell knowing we would have likely have high frequency ripples for a few weeks (as global markets rebalanced to safety).

At least one small advantage with the IC is that one side is always a pure winner in these black swan scenarios. That permitted me to early-close and bank my CALL side positions at near max win and to further reopen a larger CALL side block at 350% greater premium closer in. Again during considerable market weakness I was willing to take the risk of a spike up into the new CALL spread to net an overall loss of 50% rather than realize a near 100% loss to the downside. This also still gave me a fair to modest statistical shot at turning a profit in this period and a lot more trading options over closing at a huge loss. I also took advantage of some statistics on how high a re-bounce a correction might typically take us (based on Fibonacci ratios).

I think I just may do some at the money debit spreads here in and around the 1405/1410 area to open up a larger win zone for my net March position since I am still a bit vulnerable to the downside. I think enough traders are still shell shocked enough that we will not get a radical swing to the upside for at least through the remainder of the options period ( but I am respectful of a rush to short covering and put unwinds going through expiration).

A perfect scenario for me will be sideways motion at around 1407-1410 going into SET Thursday night with SPX at about 1410. The market is also now mostly within my trade space where I have the alternative to simultaneously close both PUT and CALL blocks together as a multi-leg order if exit premium/vol contract toward expiration. It's going to be a cliff hanger for me and I think I will have better options to reduce position risk by 50% or more as vol declines to the upside. In this one case I don't mind as much risking a favorable SET if I am slightly in the money to the upside going into expiration since I am still in a loss mitigation physchology.

TS

Sorry for being so verbose again - just have a lot to consider here.
 
Sorry for the imbedded post.

I wrote the following:

Another thing to keep in mind is the SET. It might not be as predictable as previous SETs (with small point changes.)

If you look back several years ago in a higher IV environment, the SET point changes could vary wildly.

Good luck.

AZD
 
Quote from TrendSailor:

...At least one small advantage with the IC is that one side is always a pure winner in these black swan scenarios.

...Sorry for being so verbose again - just have a lot to consider here.

Hello TS,

Last time I looked, we did not have a BS Event. And the only way that the market moved too quickly against you was if your position was too CTM. Otherwise you should have had plenty of time to respond to a normal market movement.

I know you stay on top of upcoming Economic Event Calendars like Jobs Reports, etc.

So I would ask a couple of questions about your trading plan:

1) Did you have a trading plan for your existing position?

2) Since you probably cannot anticipate the contents or impact of Economic news, all you can really do is plan out how you would manage your outstanding positions in the event of"

a) Slow market conditions in one direction or the other regarding your position.

b) Fast market conditions in one direction or the other regarding your position.

c) No market direction to speak of regarding your position.

A pre-existing trading plan might have resulted in either a profit or a loss, but it also would have eliminated the emotional stress of trying to figure out what to do AFTER the event, and when it is probably already too late to do anything anyway except stand in the headlights and hope for devine intervention.
 
What do you think now.

http://www.crowderinvestments.com/blog/index.php?s=iron+condor&paged=3

This guy is one of the few who actually get it. Iron condor positions must be managed appropriately for long-term gains. This cycle proves how important it is as I know many of you have been slammed this expiration by the one pitfall of the strategy - a sharp directional move. Don't wait until your short strikes are breached. That is why I like this guy. He understands the importance capital preservation plays in an iron condor stragegy and he acted on it this month by getting out early. Any horror stories about how others are handling their March condor positions? There should be some grueling tales out there that we acn all learn from this cycle.
 
Quote from Zegras:

What do you think now.

http://www.crowderinvestments.com/blog/index.php?s=iron+condor&paged=3

This guy is one of the few who actually get it. Iron condor positions must be managed appropriately for long-term gains. This cycle proves how important it is as I know many of you have been slammed this expiration by the one pitfall of the strategy - a sharp directional move. Don't wait until your short strikes are breached. That is why I like this guy. He understands the importance capital preservation plays in an iron condor stragegy and he acted on it this month by getting out early. Any horror stories about how others are handling their March condor positions? There should be some grueling tales out there that we acn all learn from this cycle.

You are spamming again!

Surely Magna <sp> will catch on soon.
 
Quote from Zegras:

What do you think now.

This guy is one of the few who actually get it. Iron condor positions must be managed appropriately for long-term gains. This cycle proves how important it is as I know many of you have been slammed this expiration by the one pitfall of the strategy - a sharp directional move. Don't wait until your short strikes are breached. That is why I like this guy. He understands the importance capital preservation plays in an iron condor stragegy and he acted on it this month by getting out early. Any horror stories about how others are handling their March condor positions? There should be some grueling tales out there that we acn all learn from this cycle.

My thought is that you have 11 posts and each one mentions either a service or autotrade service...don't really know if you personally have anything to contribute,


oh and BTW I'm doing just fine this March exp..and 1st quarter...thank you. golly gee without any paid help:confused:
 
Finally closed that bear call spread I had from last summer!!!
By rolling, I lost 1/3 of my account instead of taking a 100% loss.

This is how I survived (kind of):

I did not want to face a BS, so I did only bear call spreads (CTM) on the xeo. Well, I did great last summer, but then the market started trending.
Instead of closing and taking the loss when the trend changed, I rolled and rolled and rolled.

I traded ATM debit spreads on the short term trends. So, I made enough to pay for the rolls.

One month, I was able to do a vertical roll for a credit.

Anyway lessons learned:
1)When the trend changes- CLOSE and take the loss. Open a new spread later.
2)If you have an iron condor based on the intermediate trend, trade ATM debit spreads based on the short term trends

I have now got used to the ATM debit spreads and have been doing well with them. Of course, now volatility has gone up, so I don't know if the debit spreads will still do well.......
 
Sorry no spam for you. Just reporting my own experience which is what I thought we did here. I have stated my trades from last month which I hope was helpful and yes I ahve touted a few services which have been helpful for me and yes I did pay for them. I was a beginner a short while ago and have learned quite a bit from the paid services. The mesage boards are great to share ideas but are not the end all especially for someone that is working through the intricacies of an advanced option strategy. That is why I pay a professional to help me. Just seems like paid services get a bad rap on this board which is a shame. It seems like a couple bad experiences have defined everyone's opinion of paid services. Beleive me I have experienced some bad ones which is why I like to report the good ones. Like I said isn't this why we have a message board to begin with. Just my two cents.
 
Quote from Zegras:

Just seems like paid services get a bad rap on this board which is a shame. ... Just my two cents.

Here's why it's NOT a shame to dis paid services:

Here's something you ought to consider before paying for another service:

If they realy knew what they were doing;

if they really had a system for selecting trades that were consistently successful;

They would NEVER sell that information for a few measly dollars. They would trade that system EXCLUSIVELY and make a fortune.

They are just guessing at good trades, and their guess is no better than yours. You understand the strategy, why pay someone to guess which strikes to sell?

Mark
 
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