SPX Credit Spread Trader

Quote from optioncoach:

That is what is attracting me. Potential for large rewards with little manageable risk. I am also looking at what I can do to lift up that loss curve.
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If you want to get funky. Here is your holy grail. Dont ask me for a name LOL. Assumes 3% increase in vols which seems reasonable whether we rally and slide up the supply skew or sell off and get an uptick in vols. I went closer to the market to lift up the curve and widen the zone which of course reduced the r/r. If you get even higher vols, the curve gets lifted even more, so logically a move for the put strike is preferred. Check out the wide profit zone. 90% probability of success. I think we should hire mo to double check TS's math behind these calculations.

LOL

flylc0.jpg
 
Yeah I was playing around with added the puts as well and getting different curves with narrow profit zones. Yours is pretty wide and the max loss is pretty small compared to the initial net credit.

I will play around with different strikes.

I am waiting to hear from Mav on haircut estimates before moving forward...
 
Quote from optioncoach:

Yours is pretty wide and the max loss is pretty small compared to the initial net credit.
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The trick is to get the 3% bump in vols otherwise your loss zone is between 1339 and 1365 using todays vols (then max loss is still manageable at roughly $1710).

No way you can do this in a retail account as you've said, I'm interested in hearing what Mav says about the haircut needed.
 
Yes, one of the positions I tested moves the entire graph above 0 if vols increase. Good to put on if vols bottom out and taking a bet on vol increases as well as the profit zone in the position....
 
Check out this bad boy!

1390 cross month Call FlY
1300 croos month Put Fly

To prop up the middle sagging profit area I added 1350 cross month fly.

Then added 3% vols and viola. really wide profit zone with tremendous profit potential.

of course you need vols to increase :) so it is not like this at the inception.

3zu8k12.jpg
 
Quote from optioncoach:

Check out this bad boy!

1390 cross month Call FlY
1300 croos month Put Fly

To prop up the middle sagging profit area I added 1350 cross month fly.

Then added 3% vols and viola. really wide profit zone with tremendous profit potential.

of course you need vols to increase :) so it is not like this at the inception.

3zu8k12.jpg
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You could call that the Trident Spread. Where is Cottle when you need him? He can come up with some doozies, both in strat and name.
 
Still running this test here on put calendars...


UPDATE - New Experimental Put Calendar Spread:

1. Original Position

BOUGHT 1 OCT EW 1290 Put @ 12.00 ($600 EOM Options)

SOLD 1 SEP ES 1290 Put @ 2.50 ($125)

NeT Debit = $475.00 9.50


2. Short SEP ES Put expired worthless.

Sold 1 SEP EW 1290 Put at 1.00 ($50)

NEW NET DEBIT = $425.00


3. Short SEP EW 1290 Put expires worthless

Sold 1 OCT ES 1290 Put @ $1.85 ($92.50)

NEW NET DEBIT = $332.50


Market never came down but I did get 2 rolls so far to bring down net debit from $475 to $332.50 and I have one more roll in the OCT EW cycle. I like that I have a lot of time to be right and if I am wrong I can at least work to reduce my risk. If I put on the same position in calls I would be rolling them for profits so I will look to calls as well.
 
Still running this one as well

Coach Phil Put Calendar Spread

1. Bought 1 OCT EW 1310 Put @ 9.75 ($487.50)

Sold 1 SEP EW 1310 Put @ 1.70 ($85.00)

Net Debit = $402.50


2. SEP EW 1310 expired worthless

Sold OCT ES 1310 Put @ 3.90 ($195.00)

NEW NET DEBIT = $207.50



Still have OCT EW for more premium if market does not come down, which will reduce the risk even further.
 
Still open as well...

SPX CREDIT SPREAD POSITION

SOLD 400 OCT SPX 1385/1390 Put Spreads @ $0.30

Net Credit = $12,000

Max Risk = $188,000

Return = 6.4%


Partial hedge given the shorter distance OTM:

Long 100 OCT SPY 138 Calls @ $0.20 or $2,000


COMBINED NET CREDIT = $10,000

Combined Net Return = 5.26%
 
First Test of Cross-Month Short Fly

Opened my first test today of the position we were discussing using EW S&P end of month options (ES was to close in OCT to get a decent position):


SHORT 25 OCT EW 1385 Calls @ 2.50 (+$3,125.00)

LONG 50 NOV EW 1385 Calls @ 9.75 (-$24,375.00)

SHORT 25 DEC EW 1385 Calls @ 21.00 (+$26,250.00)

NET CREDIT = $5,000 or 4.00 * 25

I have a mental stop loss at around $7,500 (i.e. willing to risk $7,500). Difficult to model since they are EOM options. I modelled SPX using OCT expiration which is a week or two before EW and in a best estimation I can do, I see a maximum loss potential of about $2,500. Since this is off of SPX and I tried to estimate best as I can, I believe the max loss is higher closer to $4,000 but we will see. As I cushion I set my stop loss at $7,500. Personally I feel the max loss is much less cause I have one adjustment left after expiration where I convert the NOV position into a bull call spread and close out the DEC position. In most of my tests this results in a smaller loss and often in a net profit. Real is different from tests so lets see lol. Profit potential could be as much as $20,000 at the strike at OCT expiration but again this is a leap frog estimate.

I will let everyone know tomorrow what the haircut is on the position.
 
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