Quote from Sailing:
[What's even better.. .... is the reverse VEGA play.
Consider this... we get a huge VEGA spike sometime in Aug.
The Put diagonal 1225/1200 is making money....
Short Aug 1225p = $6.00
Long Sept 1200p = $8.00
Buy back that expensive Aug 1225p for $6.... (this is when most people would say... WHAT?)
And sell the back month DEC 1175p for $28.00
Case I: (Market continue down)
The market moves further down.... ok.... ride it out and take Aug 1225p profit. Buy next month put to replace it and be covered on the DEC short.
Case 2: (Market trades sideways)
The market consolidates for two weeks.... VIX drops 10%, August 1225p is now $3, but the DEC 1175p is now $15. HUGE profit... on VEGA slide. DEC put can be bought back and front month again resold
Case 3: (Market trades up)
The market moves up... VIX really falls, Aug 1225p fall to $1.00, DEC 1175p falls to $5.00 Even a bigger $$$ VEGA play.
We've bact tested this for SIX months, because we're not in the appropraite 'margin' required account types... 'haircut' or 'span' at this time. But I really like the Risk/Reward on this... 'MAV' style X-mass tree strategy.... oops.. that's proprietary.
Mav, sure hope you're reading this!
I like your reverse vega play.
Suppose I am going to do it now.
STO Aug 1225 Put @ 7.3
BTO Sep 1200 Put @ 9.3
net debit 2.0
Case 1: Market going down at Aug.
VIX increases, and BTC Aug 1225 Put for a loss, say at that time Aug 1225 Put @ 9.3 for a loss of $2.
STO Dec 1175 Put, say @ 25 ( currently it is at 16.5).
Then follow the adjustment in your post.
Case 2: Market going sideway.
No need to adjust. Let the front leg expires, and you still have some values for Sep 1220 Put.
Case 3: Market goes up a lot at Aug b/c Fed announced no more rate hike.
Aug 1225 Put expires worthless.
Sep 1220 Put loses a lot more b/c vega decreases as the stock is further away from the strke.
So in case 3, we are losing money, and how do we adjust our position?