Quote from apex82:
Just thought I would add a little input on the whole middle east thing. There will be something serious to happen over the next few years. Whether it is tomorrow or a year from now, no one knows. But history does repeat itself, mainly US history. You can see the world is tightening up, things are building up and paranoia is mounting. The thing with terror attacks is they are not a new thing anymore. If the S&P drops 10% or so in a week I would find it as a great buying oppurtunity, rather then panic sell. The market did not sell off this week because of Israel... It was just an excuse. They have a new one on CNBC for you everyday if you believe that stuff. Anyways, going forward I am with Coach. I would rather play the put side as I feel the downside is a lot easier to gauge than the upside. We have not reached a 10-14% correction in the S&P yet and I find it hard to be so optimistic about the future until getting one. We have also competed a picture perfect elliot wave on the S&P cash weekly chart, which also suggests some more downside. I am not an elliotician, just use some of the main, simple components that help with my anaylsis. As far as options I would buy any strike I could get my hands on below 1150 for august. We are not going to break that level, in fact I would buy futures for a long term hold if we got there. I am hoping to reach that level around October, but that is just a wish. Here is a chart of some recent support levels for next week on the S&P cash. 1207-1209, 1197-1200, and 1180-1188 are great buying oppurtunities. The only contigency is that we are entering a seasonal bearish cycle for the next 5-7 days. Still currently long Gold from 580-560 and Nat Gas futures. Buy any decent dip in gold and get some nat gas futures before the smart money comes in. Thanks for all the help in the options field, still learning everyday.
Good luck in your trading!