SPX Credit Spread Trader

I know Phil wants to keep this journal on topic. But he IS the one who keeps talking about feeling a bottom, nailing the bottom, and hitting the target...

jessica_alba_beach_05.jpg


Plus, its summertime and JA hasn't made an appearance in many months.
 
The difference is due to different closing time. SPX closes at 4 EST and ES closes at 4:15 EST.

Quote from optioncoach:

Interesting day today..

The cash index was down much more in points all day than the SP futures were. For example, right now the SPX is down 4.38 and the ES futures are down 2.50.

This happens once in a blue moon and I wonder if it tells us anything. Are the future traders buying more or not as motivated to sell, thus signaling a wane of the downward pressure?

Yesterday on the huge drop the utures were down almost 20 points to the SPX's 16. Stronger selling pressure yesterday than today?

Anyone know why this can happen at time and what it could mean. Perhaps the traders were not willing to short the futures as strongly as the index was falling but arbs kept it falling to some extent.
 
Quote from optioncoach:



This happens once in a blue moon and I wonder if it tells us anything. Are the future traders buying more or not as motivated to sell, thus signaling a wane of the downward pressure?


Phil, that happens everytime the ES last print excluding the premium(3:15 central) is different than the SPX close(3:00 central). Remember when that bird flu news hit the market afterhours in june? There was a difference of like 6 points that day.

Sorry if i am pointing out the obvious.
 
Uh..... why would say a pic of JA is off-topic :confused:


Nice to see her again :D

Quote from jeffm:

I know Phil wants to keep this journal on topic. But he IS the one who keeps talking about feeling a bottom, nailing the bottom, and hitting the target...
 
I never bothered to notice it before really so never new what caused them to go out of whack occasionally.

Quote from rallymode:

Phil, that happens everytime the ES last print excluding the premium(3:15 central) is different than the SPX close(3:00 central). Remember when that bird flu news hit the market afterhours in june? There was a difference of like 6 points that day.

Sorry if i am pointing out the obvious.
 
I'm trying to calculate my return on margin so far for the year. Each month I have had a different margin at risk. So, my initial attempt at calculating this is to sum the margin for each of the 7 months (I've already closed all positions opened prior to July expiration) and divide by 7 to get the average margin.

Then I simply add up the profits/losses for each of the seven months and divide the sum by the average margin.

Is this the right way?
 
that's my theory and I'm sticking to it ;)

nice move on the 1335 level by the way. that is about the intersect point of the trendline from 8/04 and it held. the trendline is also holding on the rut.

the dow also retested the 10700 level low of last month to within a point but the sp didn't follow to 1220 this time. the nas comp came within 2 of its 10/04 low.

all this to say we are at serious support. if it gives way then we are looking at large downside.

I think it looks pretty bleak but that feeling of fear and the vix/vxo back to 19ish could mean it's time for bargain buyers to come in. sold the aug 1160s today do you know where I stand.

Quote from optioncoach:

So today's difference in actual point moves was more a "compensation" if you will of yesterday's futures running away from the cash a bit too much and today they snapped back a tad?
 
That is an easy way for a quick and dirty figure if you were not tracking it exaclty each month. I do it that way since the amount of margin I use each month changes so much I just generalize my return on margin.


Quote from rdemyan:

I'm trying to calculate my return on margin so far for the year. Each month I have had a different margin at risk. So, my initial attempt at calculating this is to sum the margin for each of the 7 months (I've already closed all positions opened prior to July expiration) and divide by 7 to get the average margin.

Then I simply add up the profits/losses for each of the seven months and divide the sum by the average margin.

Is this the right way?
 
Quote from jeffm:

How will the ES futures PREM decline affect your position as we move toward the Sept futures expiry?

It wont. It's an arb with the potential for more gains if we go ATM. Only risk is if the ES starts going for a discount to cash.
 
Rdemyan,

With a week to go until expiration.... let's say .15 plus commissions is what it will cost you to close the position... in my opinion is like giving away a 10% profit for one week. Would you be the buyer of this .15 debit spread hoping to make 10% in one week?

Here's how I like to rationalize it! If you think you can find a position which will make you more than 10% (almost guaranteed in your case) in the same time period.... then it's an easy question to answer..... sell or roll the position. (remember there is little risk in your current position)

But, in reality, a pretty sure fire 10% for one week would be hard to find. So, unless you really need the money, it seem prudent to wait it out.

There will be plenty of opportunities ahead... maybe even bigger and better ones....

M~



Quote from rdemyan:

Thanks, Coach.

Here's something I could use some help on. On July 6th I had the following trade filled (I erred in my previous post on when this trade was filled).

August 1345/1360 bear calls for $0.70
SPX was at 1277


As a result of the substantial drop since then, I would love to get out of this and pocket some nice premium for one week.

But getting out of these bear calls is not easy even when they go way OTM.

Any thoughts? I currently have a trade to buy this back at $0.10. The ToS mark on this is $0.025. The b/a is:

1345 $0.20/$0.50
1360 $0.15/$0.50

Is legging out the only option I have. I just don't know if I should risk it. Still the prospect of getting out now and having the "gunpowder" and the time to put on more August trades is appealling.

I would be curious to know if you would feel comfortable buying it back $0.20 as opposed to my $0.10. One thing that has really helped me in this forum is the perspective I've gained from other's thoughts on risk/reward, how much profit is enough, etc. This is something I didn't have before and led to earlier bad trades/positions.

Let me know if you think this is greed talking as I know that's something I need to control.

Thanks.
 
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