SPX Credit Spread Trader

[El OchoCinco]

Interesting day today..

The cash index was down much more in points all day than the SP futures were. For example, right now the SPX is down 4.38 and the ES futures are down 2.50.

This happens once in a blue moon and I wonder if it tells us anything. Are the future traders buying more or not as motivated to sell, thus signaling a wane of the downward pressure?

Yesterday on the huge drop the utures were down almost 20 points to the SPX's 16. Stronger selling pressure yesterday than today?

Anyone know why this can happen at time and what it could mean. Perhaps the traders were not willing to short the futures as strongly as the index was falling but arbs kept it falling to some extent.

 

[jeffm]

How will the ES futures PREM decline affect your position as we move toward the Sept futures expiry?

Quote from rallymode:

If we get down to 1100 i can easily close the flat position for $1-2. If you look at the the july 1240 ES puts and july 1240 SPX puts you can see the potential.

 

[momoneythansens]

Futures sold off a few points after cash closed but before futures closed yesterday

Quote from optioncoach:



Anyone know why this can happen at time and what it could mean. Perhaps the traders were not willing to short the futures as strongly as the index was falling but arbs kept it falling to some extent.

 

[Prevail]

phil, I watch the futures-cash spread closely. it has been consistently around 7.28 the last few days although less this morning.

the differences in the daily changes is due to the futures changing after cash closes.

yesterday was quite large.

 

[El OchoCinco]

I rarely have reasons to brag about anything but I nailed the intraday low today at 1235 at teh first pivton point. I adjusted my credit spread into a put ratio spread at 11:38 AM when the premiums where juicy and after ES hit the 1235 low at 11:35 AM. I also covered my last E short contract shortlty thereafter. I am sure it was blind luck lol, but I will take the nice adjustment and the huge profit in my ES shorts

Despite my feeling of a bottom I still made the adjustment because of more downside potential next week.

Quote from optioncoach:

ES Credit Spread Update

Rolled credit spread into slightly further OTM put ratio spread and covered most of my new short of ES at 1246.75 for some profit. Timed it when ES hit 1235 pivot point support as I expect (right or wrong) selling pressure to subside and although we will not be positive for the day I think the market needs a rest and will want to be flat before the weekend to an extent.

 

[El OchoCinco]

So today's difference in actual point moves was more a "compensation" if you will of yesterday's futures running away from the cash a bit too much and today they snapped back a tad?

Quote from Prevail:

phil, I watch the futures-cash spread closely. it has been consistently around 7.28 the last few days although less this morning.

the differences in the daily changes is due to the futures changing after cash closes.

yesterday was quite large.

 

[ryank]

I have been trying since about 12:30 to get a put spread filled. I have been .10, .15 and .20 under at various times and no fill .

 

[momoneythansens]

Quote from optioncoach:

I rarely have reasons to brag about anything but I nailed the intraday low today at 1235

Good job on nailing the bottom! Perhaps, an alternative adjustment could have leveraged your intra-day timing skills better? ...but that's easy for me to say in hindsight.

Does legging into less than fair-value ratio spread qualify for bragging rights :eek: Shhh....I'll keep that one quiet

Good job nonetheless.

 

[kotika]

Quote from tyrant:

But the put skew will only help in naked selling of puts and not when doing bull put spreads because you are long the lower ( further OTM ) put with higher IV and hence the put skew is working against you...no?

i think this is basically the point i was trying to make, and it seems that OC and others agree too. there was a nice comment to the extent that the skew will provide a higher net credit because of higher iv overall, even though the lower strike has higher iv.

Still, the bottom line is that the skew makes the bull put spread less profitable, than it would have been otherwise, assuming that iv were still higher than actual volatilities.

for example, ATM, the credit is around 40c on the dollar. Without skew, this should be exactly 50c, no matter how high or low the volatility. Those of you with gambling backgrounds will note that it is a big difference in odds, here Mr Market is giving us 3/2 odds that the market will rise, instead of odds-on.

My hunch is that Mr Market is correct, market goes up most of the time, except when it crashes. It crashes hard and fast, then resumes the slow and long rise.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Since much like when I was single, I really only nail one bottom a year, I would rather not try and trade off that skill..

Quote from momoneythansens:

Good job on nailing the bottom! Perhaps, an alternative adjustment could have leveraged your intra-day timing skills better? ...but that's easy for me to say in hindsight.

Does legging into less than fair-value ratio spread qualify for bragging rights :eek: Shhh....I'll keep that one quiet

Good job nonetheless.