Quote from rdemyan:
So just like when you asked me earlier this week why I put on a bear call when the market looked (in your opinion) to be headed towards 1275 - 1290, why are you putting on bull puts when the market looks [in my opinion and to some extent your own
] to be headed towards 1200 and lower.
good question. wish i had an easy answer. i did it a lil different this time around, i am scaling into the position instead of waiting for that perfect entry(which is where i will probably throw more size in and probably do a ratio spread as the vix will be skyrocketing).
I know your adept at adjusting and can probably handle anything thrown at you, but why try to catch, what could be, a falling knife. At what point do geopolitical realities (Middle East, oil) trump technical analysis.
I like catching falling knives LOL, its just my style, going against the trend. It gives me much better entries than if i were to wait for a confirmation and usually a reversal is just around the corner. I normally dont care much about news like these as they are very subjective in my opinion. As long as i avoid earnings release on individuals(unless im playing the vega) or crucial FOMC or CPI releases(when i feel they will move teh market) i feel relatively safe with everything else.
Just trying to understand the logic, because every time I post a bear call I get questioned on my logic (which I don't mind because hopefully it keeps me honest), but in hindsight being in bear calls these last three months was a good place to be (winning trades and no stress).
the only time i questioned your logic was when you opened a bear call early june amid a huge selloff. alsom, yes the last 3 months have been good to any bearish trades, no question about it but it could've easily been the other way around, do these same trades a hundred times and then you will see where the optimal entries would be and they are not right after a selloff in my opinion.
I'm thinking that it might be the different mindset that explains the differences in perception. Clearly that's every one's choice but I think it's important because one needs to choose a path in trading that meshes with their mindset, their available time to monitor the market and their ability to handle the stress of adjusting.
true, i like adjusting, i think execution is where most money in options is to be made, if you can adjust your positions and morph them around, you will do much much better than simply open and wait till expiry. Just my opinion. And i am not too worried if my strikes get ITM as my risk is well defined upfront and i dont mind losing the whole spread. infact the only times i lose the whole spread is when the market gets really extended in one direction, in those cases, i usually have other trades that pick up the slack. i dont trade the SPX exclusively.
Thanks.
Holy cow!