SPX Credit Spread Trader

Couple things:

1) Is anyone gearing up for July, or all sitting and waiting for the Fed Announcement?

2) June results were 6.23% return on risk with the adjustement that I had to make. IF i didn't adjust, it would have been 11.1% return on risk, all inclusive of commish. But I'm still glad I adjusted.

3) Rally, could you detail a bit how you setup your price channels and entry indicators? I'd like to add some more tech analysis to my trades. I did find your chart you posted, which was helpful.

Thanks,
burr.
 
Quote from rdemyan:

it looks like there is a substantial skew in the pricing of puts versus calls. ... I was a bit disappointed to see that naked call options on futures don't seem to have much value relative to puts. I knew that there would be a skew, but it was much more than I expected.
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The put skew exists for SPX and almost everything stock market related. ES has margin, execution and spread benefits. But if ES had an actual price advantage over SPX, it would quickly be arbed away.

SPX ~ 1240, VIX ~ 17.5, market is down 8 pts from my previous post

JUL 1050P 1.00 bid
JUL 1150P 4.30 bid
JUL 1240P 19.5x20.5, JUL 1240C 23.9 x 25.9 ATM
JUL 1320C 0.45 bid
JUL 1360C 0.10 bid

In your quest to avoid the black swan, have you already sold off all your other holdings that are long the market (mutual funds in IRA, etc)? If not, why not? Are those other investments "safer"? What characteristic of their risk/reward and %win/loss makes them safer?

All I am saying is don't let the black swan be a disproportionate factor in your analysis of trading methods. There are ways to blunt the impact of a "disaster", at the expense of profit.

You drive an expensive car, but one wrong move can destroy it. Do you give up some profit to buy auto insurance, or do you give up completely and ride the bus?
 
Here's my price channel as overlaid on a 3 month SPX chart:

coyotefalls.jpg


Quote from burrben:

Couple things:

3) Rally, could you detail a bit how you setup your price channels and entry indicators? I'd like to add some more tech analysis to my trades. I did find your chart you posted, which was helpful.

Thanks,
burr.
More...
 
Quote from burrben:

Couple things:



3) Rally, could you detail a bit how you setup your price channels and entry indicators? I'd like to add some more tech analysis to my trades. I did find your chart you posted, which was helpful.

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Well at this point it is hard for me to establish a reliable trading range therefore i am pretty much sitting on my hands. People who rely on TA are probably mostly short the market right now. For me, my next SPX trade will be at levels at or above/below 1290/1220. In my opinion, at this point any bullish/bearish trades will be at flip of a coin odds and needless to say i dont like those. I am 90% cash right now.
 
Not gonna do any July SPX spreads until after the fed meeting this week, an even then there might not be enough time to go sufficiently OTM for my tastes so we will see...

Quote from burrben:

Couple things:

1) Is anyone gearing up for July, or all sitting and waiting for the Fed Announcement?

2) June results were 6.23% return on risk with the adjustement that I had to make. IF i didn't adjust, it would have been 11.1% return on risk, all inclusive of commish. But I'm still glad I adjusted.

3) Rally, could you detail a bit how you setup your price channels and entry indicators? I'd like to add some more tech analysis to my trades. I did find your chart you posted, which was helpful.

Thanks,
burr.
More...
 
Quote from optioncoach:

an even then there might not be enough time to go sufficiently OTM for my tastes so we will see...
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coach, have you looked at ES EOM options. Good use for these situations when the regulars dont have enough juice in them. And i think you meant the meeting next week :)
 
Trying to pull in the quotes on X-trader but cannot find them to follow the quotes...

Quote from rallymode:

coach, have you looked at ES EOM options. Good use for these situations when the regulars dont have enough juice in them.
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Actually it was stated the obvious to the very stupid. Was not looking for the right symbol LOL...

Interestingly a JUNE ES EOM 1160 is at 1.00. Was looking at selling 100 for $5,000 credit for 2 weeks. Hmmm Fed risk too much I think although that i such a far low.

Quote from momoneythansens:

You might have to try EW as the symbol. Apologies if that was stating the obvious. :)
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