SPX Credit Spread Trader

4. Wingspreads (Flys, Condors, etc...)
5. Calendar Configurations (Double diagonals and straddle/strangle swaps)


These two above sound like the most interesting topics and relevant to our discussions here..
 
if anyone is interested, optionsrez.com has a free downloadable spreadsheet on spx and oex ranges for the iron condor strategy. in theory the math predicts 80% probability of success. a new range is calculated the day after expiry. obviously, it is for information only.

Click on the "free stuff" link.
 
At what point would you plan on doing some adjustment with a 40 point spread between the long and short. Would you let the SPX get above your short before adjusting?

What would be your first adjustment strategy if the SPX reached the short?



Meantime I opened a new Diagonal:

SOLD 18 JUNE SPX 1310 Calls @ $3.60 ($6,480)
BTO 20 JULY SPX 1350 Calls @ $2.95 ($5,900)

Net Credit = $580


It seems to me there is an inherent prolem with call diagonals that is absent when using puts.

IV drops when the market rallies towards the short strike (obviously ideal if expiration is near). That seriously reduces the value of the July long calls.

When using puts, if the market declines towards the strike, there is usually an accompanying increase in IV, lifting the value of the long puts.

Do you take this IV factor into consideration when opening diagonal spreads? Do you find put diagonals to be moe profitable than call diagonals?

Mark [/B][/QUOTE]
 
Hi Murray:

I'm reading up on diagonals and double diagonals. You've mentioned a number of times that the diagonal virtually eliminates the black swan risk. I don't understand this as it appears that the maximum risk is the same as with a credit spread. Are you saying this because you would only trade call diagonals due to the put IV skew not being as favorable on the credit?
 
IV will sky rocket in a black swan event, which should increase the longer term option IV and keep some time in it very far down into the money in the case of a crash. That is also implying that the event will most likely not be more than about 100 points. Any event that is over 150 points will most likely take it so far into the money that the maximum loss could occur. But even 9/11 did not take the loss that far in one day. The loss from 9/10/01 to 9/17/01 when the market reopened was about 54 points. The loss from 9/11/01 to the bottom on 9/21/01 was about 140 points. This gave you a good ten days to do something about the spread While the next event may take the market down more than 9/11 did, the put diagonal would not have taken a maximum loss in that situation.


Quote from rdemyan:

Hi Murray:

I'm reading up on diagonals and double diagonals. You've mentioned a number of times that the diagonal virtually eliminates the black swan risk. I don't understand this as it appears that the maximum risk is the same as with a credit spread. Are you saying this because you would only trade call diagonals due to the put IV skew not being as favorable on the credit?
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Quote from momoneythansens:

You have to use your imagination when deciphering 'arb speak. Riskarb squeezes a lot of information into very few words = knowledge compression and high efficiency.
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Thanks Mo for the explanations. Without you around, quite a few of us will be totally lost. Sorry for the late reply as I signed out for the weekend too :)
 
Coach:

How did you decide on the strike selection for the June/July diagonal?


Quote from optioncoach:

Yes the margin is just calculated as difference between strikes times number of actual short spreads that are part of the diagonal. So a 1*2 short*long diagonal only has 1 credit spread imbedded. At 40 SPX points *$100 that is $4,000 in margin.
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Have to apologize for posting the discount I was able to get for Cottle's new offerings. Due to complaints by brave anons, I was advised to cease and desist. Sorry a small few ruin it but we are guests here at ET, for now, and that is the rules.
 
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