SPX Credit Spread Trader

Quote from rdemyan:

I thought your point was that the 30 point spread is less risky (based on probabilities of breaching the long option). Perhaps we have a different viewpoint on risk.

I've been reluctant to do larger spreads, but you've got me thinking that it might actually be less risky. I would consider the larger spreads when, as I posted earlier, I have an existing 1375/1390 bear call and want to add a 1390/1405 bear call as a new position. Adding such a new position would give me a resulting 1375/1405 bear call. It makes me nervous to think about adjusting this (which I'm beginning to think is illogical). It might actually have the two following benefits:

1) The probability of breaching the long on a 30 point spread is less than on a 10 or 15 point spread as you pointed out earlier. Therefore, the maximum loss scenario is reduced based on probabilities alone. Of course, Coach will point out that you should be adjusting the position before the short strike is breached (which I agree with). And with bear calls, you don't have the black swan risk so there should be time to make adjustments or get out of the way before the short strike is breached.

2) When it comes to adjusting, I could just adjust the short strike alone and not the entire spread. So, if I have the 1375/1405 and need to adjust, I could just buy back the 1375 and sell the 1385 or 1390 leaving the 1405 in place. It probably would be easier to adjust such a position because I'm only trying to get filled on one option and not a spread. I might even get better fills when trading just a single option.

Coach: What are your thoughts on this?

Sorry Rdeyman. I meant to say that the 5-point spreads are technically MORE risky than the 30-point spreads.
 
Rallymode,

You posted the following:

Before i open my 5-point spreads i always make an attempt at grabbing the 10 pointer if i can get it for twice the credit. Sometimes, options get slightly out of balance and you can manage to get such a fill but most of the times MM's won't give up the wider spread for virtually the same max risk. This is easier done on the ES in my experience but is very difficult with anything over 20 contracts



My reply is this:

The difference between two adjacent put verticals is the value of a butterfly spread.

If you are willing to sell a MM a 5 point vertical spread for .50 but instead offer the 10 point vertical for 1.00 you are handing the MM the butterfly spread for free. If I were a MM I would take the 10 point spread for 1.00 because I end up synthetically long the butterfly spread for free.

I assume the price levels you are trading at when initiating your credit spreads support butterfly spread prices of at least .05

Knowing that the butterfly is worth .05 you should be offering the 10 point butterfly at 1.05 NOT 1.00

If this is confusing to you let me know and I will help with my logic.

Knucklehead
 
I will just throw in my $0.0175 here with respect to 5-point spreads v. 30-point spreads.

I do not think you will get much comparing these two since they are quite different. There are pros and cons to doing each and it is really a matter of personal preference and how each would maesh with your own trading style and capital.

5-point spreads allow you to do big volume for small credits and take in nice premium. The short is really close to the long so if the market starts moving towards you, the long will help offset more initially than if the spread was much wider. Most cases it is hard to get a good credit since the spread is onyl 5 points apart due to the wide b/a spread. in most cases you have a negative bid for the spread or the wide b/a spread puts the midpoint close to $0. However with some time and good entries on swings you can grab one for decent credit and do nice volume. On a large market swing, the spread will reach a greater loss sooner than a much wider spread but depending on how and when you adjust it might not matter as much.

A wider spread means the long option will cost much less than the short one allowing for a greater premium. The margin is of course higher unless you are doing a fixed capital amount no matter the size of the spread. Wider spreads may allow you to go furtgher OTM since you can take in more premium and therefore use further out strikes. On the downside the long strke will be too far away in most cases to offset moves in the index against you. So if the market moves towards you, the short strike has a much greater delta in general and the position will suffer a larger loss in general on PAPER. Again, whether this paper effect matters depends on how you trade them.

But since you could choose different strikes with the narrow and wider spreads and they will react differently to market moves it is hard to compare them and really say which is better. One is better in certain situations than the other but it is really personal preference. One trader who does these in larger scale than me like the really wide spreads to be able to go as far OTM as possible and get a decent credit. I do not have the cheddar to make that profitable for me so I do not mind moving a little higher than him and use 5, 10 and 15 point spreads.

Personal preference really controls here as opposed to an objective easy answer.
 
Quote from momoneythansens:


IMO, it's better to think of any spread wider than 5-points to simply be a collection of 5-point verticals e.g. a 10-point vertical is just two 5-point verticals next to each other. You can buy back either one or both to lock in a profit or loss depending on the situation. If the underlying moves away from you then you can buy back the higher vertical to lock in a profit and reduce risk on the table. You might think of this as rolling down the long leg closer to the short leg.

When you refer to the probabilities of max loss being lower on a wider vertical being lower, you are really referring to the probabilities of the embedded verticals at the higher end being lower - but this is obvious when you think about it in terms of embedded verticals.

This is essentially exactly what I was referring to, but didn't want to take the time to explain it. Also, Mo is better at explaining things than I am.:)

Anyway, I haven't ever compared them close enough to make a strong statement, but I would imagine that slippage makes the wider spreads more attractive. But, the only time I have ever opened a wider spread is when the strategy entailed just rolling the short strike up when the underlying got too close. In my experience, it didn't work out very well and I am reluctant to suggest it as a bread and butter strategy to anyone here.

I would generally suggest selling the 10-15 point spreads instead of the 5-point IF;
--volatility skew is minimal
--slippage is too high on the 5-point spread.
 
Off Topic:

Coach, are you taking a ES position prior to the announcement, or are you going to wait and see what the market does and then ride the wave with the ES?

Thanks,
sd
 
I have my order screen set with a large order of ES contracts at market order and when the market moves I am just going to hit BUY or SELL and enter real fast and ride it in the appropriate direction.... :D Quick point or 2 on the ES and then I am out.
 
Well put.

A 10 point spread that is worth twice as much as a 5 point spread implies the other embedded 5-point spread is exactly the same price as the first one and therefore the butterfly is free.

That further implies the original 5-point spread is either worth more than quoted or the other 5-point spread is worth less than quoted.

Either way, you have to ask yourself why sell the original 5-point spread (individually or embedded in the 10-pointer)?


Quote from knucklehead:

Rallymode,

You posted the following:

Before i open my 5-point spreads i always make an attempt at grabbing the 10 pointer if i can get it for twice the credit. Sometimes, options get slightly out of balance and you can manage to get such a fill but most of the times MM's won't give up the wider spread for virtually the same max risk. This is easier done on the ES in my experience but is very difficult with anything over 20 contracts



My reply is this:

The difference between two adjacent put verticals is the value of a butterfly spread.

If you are willing to sell a MM a 5 point vertical spread for .50 but instead offer the 10 point vertical for 1.00 you are handing the MM the butterfly spread for free. If I were a MM I would take the 10 point spread for 1.00 because I end up synthetically long the butterfly spread for free.

I assume the price levels you are trading at when initiating your credit spreads support butterfly spread prices of at least .05

Knowing that the butterfly is worth .05 you should be offering the 10 point butterfly at 1.05 NOT 1.00

If this is confusing to you let me know and I will help with my logic.

Knucklehead
 
Quote from momoneythansens:


That implies, the original 5-point spread is either worth more than quoted or the other 5-point spread is worth less than quoted.

Either way, you have to ask yourself why sell the original 5-point spread (individually or embedded in the 10-pointer)?

This is true. If you can sell the further OTM spread for the same price that you sell the closer spread for, why not just sell 2X the further OTM spread rather than 1/2 the 10-point spreads?

In the real world though, you would really never get filled on the further OTM spread at the same price as the closer spread unless some dynamic changed.
 
Quote from knucklehead:



The difference between two adjacent put verticals is the value of a butterfly spread.

If you are willing to sell a MM a 5 point vertical spread for .50 but instead offer the 10 point vertical for 1.00 you are handing the MM the butterfly spread for free. If I were a MM I would take the 10 point spread for 1.00 because I end up synthetically long the butterfly spread for free.

I assume the price levels you are trading at when initiating your credit spreads support butterfly spread prices of at least .05

Knowing that the butterfly is worth .05 you should be offering the 10 point butterfly at 1.05 NOT 1.00

If this is confusing to you let me know and I will help with my logic.

Knucklehead

I see what you are saying but to me it doesnt matter whether you view the vertical as a part of FLY's or any other combo. I am talking from a r/r perspective on that SPECIFIC spread. What i am saying is that you are less likely to get a fill on the 10 pointer vs the 5-pointer unless you give up some credit i.e. reduce your r/r. If you can manage to get a fill on a wider spread for the same r/r, you are in a better trade.

Example:

1340/1345 BCS for $1 credit r/r 1:4
1340/1350 BCS for $2 credit r/r 1:4



Now whether the first spread is really worth the quoted $1 when the 10 pointer is $2, i doubt it. But since things are only worth what you can buy/sell them for, the instant you place your trade if you can manage to get the 10 pointer for $2 when you can only get the 5-pointer for $1, you are in a better position. That's all i was saying.
 
I completely agree. You shouldn't get filled on the further OTM spread at the same price as the closer spread - but if you are being filled on a 10-pointer for twice that which you are being filled on 5-pointer as per Rally - that is precisely what is happening.

The logical explanation as alluded to by Knucklehead is that you didn't get "paid" enough for the closer spread and when the fit hits the shan and you need to buy back the closer spread (adjusting the short leg of the 10-pointer) then it might make a material difference.

I think the pertinent point is just to be aware of these mispricings.

Btw, how goes the journal?

Quote from Cache Landing:

This is true. If you can sell the further OTM spread for the same price that you sell the closer spread for. Why not just sell 2X the further OTM spread?

In the real world though, you would really never get filled on the further OTM spread at the same price as the closer spread unless some dynamic changed.
 
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