just got filled...
SPX Credit Spread Trader
- Thread starter El OchoCinco
- Start date
I dont want to be the black sheep of the thread but it sounds like many people on this thread use too much discretion when it comes to entries and credit sought. What i mean by that is, once you see the credit you seek you put more weight to the credit "collected" and less weight to its relation to the underlying and time to expiration.
You guys probably dont see it now but if you measure your results over a 12-24 month period you will probably do alot better if you systemize your entries based on optimal credit as it relates to the current price and time to expiration for the max risk at hand.
An example of what i am talking about is this:
You could've gotten that same credit at half the risk just 5 days ago.
I hope i am not offending anyone with this statement but its an observation that has bothered me for some time now. Afterall, it's your money.
You guys probably dont see it now but if you measure your results over a 12-24 month period you will probably do alot better if you systemize your entries based on optimal credit as it relates to the current price and time to expiration for the max risk at hand.
An example of what i am talking about is this:
You could've gotten that same credit at half the risk just 5 days ago.
I hope i am not offending anyone with this statement but its an observation that has bothered me for some time now. Afterall, it's your money.
Shhh...don't tell anyone about butterflies. I don't want the vols sucked out. 
I'm not disagreeing with you, but I'm not sure I understand what you mean by "half the risk".
Are you saying that the same credit could have been received 5 days ago for a 1340/1345 spread (instead of 1340/1350) which puts half as much money at risk (assuming the same number of contracts).
Are you saying that the same credit could have been received 5 days ago for a 1340/1345 spread (instead of 1340/1350) which puts half as much money at risk (assuming the same number of contracts).
Regarding discussion which took place about a week ago; article by John F. Summa with some important statistics:
/Option traders rarely take into account a little known underlying fact about the these derivative markets: Most options expire out of the money. A study analyzing three years of data compiled by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) confirms it....
The actual numbers for five markets show more than 20 million expired (worthless) options and a little more than 6 million exercised (in-the-money) options..../
http://www.allbusiness.com/periodicals/article/483878-1.html
/Option traders rarely take into account a little known underlying fact about the these derivative markets: Most options expire out of the money. A study analyzing three years of data compiled by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) confirms it....
The actual numbers for five markets show more than 20 million expired (worthless) options and a little more than 6 million exercised (in-the-money) options..../
http://www.allbusiness.com/periodicals/article/483878-1.html
I missed the discussion you are referring to but I'm pretty sure the fundamental flaws in that analysis and statistics have been discussed ad nauseum before.
I hope Maverick doesn't get wind of this and we go another 20 pages!
To avoid the 20 pages, I'll summarize:
If there is an advantage in selling then all would be sellers and prices would be driven down to zero.
Phew, disaster averted.
MoMoney.
I hope Maverick doesn't get wind of this and we go another 20 pages!
To avoid the 20 pages, I'll summarize:
If there is an advantage in selling then all would be sellers and prices would be driven down to zero.
Phew, disaster averted.
MoMoney.
It is a very rare case that I will open an IC all at once. You need to remember that you technically have a zero expectancy, ignoring commiss. and slippage.
If you open the IC all at once, you are receiving a premium that is proportionate to the amount of risk that you are taking. So if you were to open the same IC every month, you would break even in the long run, and lose the amount of commissions/slippage.
In order to make money, you have to create some kind of edge. That edge can be good money management, price forcasting, IV forcasting, etc.. I prefer to create that edge by legging into the IC based mainly on IV/price forcasting. After that, the premium/debit has to be enticing given the current price of the underlying as well as my opinion regarding furture changes.
Well summarized.
