Okay, so the 100 points was a bit high, but I'm seriously considering it for my retirement account. Also, I think it will be possible to put somewhat more margin at risk than I would in my regular account. Say 50 to 60% total at any one time (my regular account is about 33%). I would have 30% in the second month and 30% in the third month. So, if I start with June options, then in the middle to end of May I'll start looking at July options and so on. At the end of the year, I may not trade at all given the Santa Claus rally.
If I start doing this, I'll report it monthly separate from my other trades, so we can see how I do.
If I start doing this, I'll report it monthly separate from my other trades, so we can see how I do.
Quote from optioncoach:
Ahh now we are at 80 points in 2 months. SPX moved about 100 points from OCT 05 lows to DEC 05 highs.
Nothing is a given really. Calls may not be subject to black swan crashes but they are still at risk for strong rises, especially over 2 months.
Moreover, if you only do 2 month spreads, you will only have about 6 positions in a year, which cuts that 18% return in half before commissions and not counting a potential adjustment.
All I can say is it is hard to generalize an approach with this strategy. Drops are more of a panic and fear than rises but both still present risks. The more time you add the more time for the market to move against you.
You could certainly stick with calls but the IV skew works against you a bit in trying to go deep OTM. Makes it harder to go 100 points OTM like puts but then market drops can be quick and severe with puts. It is a trade off where no cookie cutter can be applied.
