Time decay is exponential so it is greater in the last 30 to 40 days. WIth 29 days to expiration and those APR strikes being way OTM, the premium is much less as a result of theta and lower deltas, and not to mention the IVs are slightly lower than the MAY expirations. It is not a probability issue really in the pricing but some good old fashioned Greeks.
Quote from andysmith:
Thanks, that's very helpful.
This might be interesting:
APR 1175/1200/1375/1400 IC is $0.45
MAY 1175/1200/1375/1400 IC is $2.10
The IC in MAY gives almost 5 times more credit than the same IC in APR.... BUT the probabilities for MAY are not 5x higher than APR. So it seems the MAY IC is a better deal?
