Quote from rdemyan:
The last couple of months have been really good for bear calls and I did very well. Since I've been posting my good results I need to be fair and post the losers as well.
I also lost on XEO CTM bear call spreads this month. Last couple of months were really good too - 25%-40% profit. Lost 33% this month. I trade with less than half of the amount allocated for spreads, so I had enough for the rolls.
Although I rolled twice, I have a loss for this month.
The second time was out to the next month and I increased the number of spreads. So, there is still a chance of recovering from this month's loss.
Lessons learned:
1) CTM spreads must be opened at the top/bottom of the trading range. Although, I opened the spreads around the expiration of the previous month, the index was not at the top of the trading range.
2) In an uptrend, close bear calls at 80%-70% profit, if the index moves down, but stalls at the 20 day moving average. If it does not close below the average, but above the previous days close, most likely it will resume the uptrend. This is what happened this month.
3) Avoid expiration week (close/roll out)-unless the index is in a downtrend and you only have bear call spreads.