Quote from Cache Landing:
Obviously from my trade today I don't feel that we'll go lower than 1245 during the next few weeks. I think it will take another 0.3% core CPI number and/or a confirmation that rate hikes will increase to break below that level.
OTOH, May generally kicks off the bearish season on thinner volume. Moves in either direction will be exaggerated especially if made on high volume. I opened the position today intending to capitalize on a bounce, which is why my short is positioned fairly close.
My overall opinion for the next month is flat, in a range between 1250-1280 (which is why I'm considering the FLY conversion). Then, June 14 the market decides which direction to go. For a number of reasons I consider 1245 a VERY critical support.
Then hurricane season, filled with wild energy swings to which the market cannot react correctly. If the Fed stop hiking rates, energy prices take center stage. Reports are suggesting a mild summer compared to last year. I think they are full of it. Truth is, they don't know at all. But the fact of the matter is that we still haven't recovered from Katrina. Any whispers of a hurricane heading toward the gulf are not good.
Bullish trades are best placed on consumer non-cyclicals and health care, while bearich trades are best placed on transportation and tech.
JMO in a nutshell. But then, what do I know. I'm just some guy. The fact that I was bold enough to say anything means that the opposite will be true. Summer forecasts are much more difficult than winter.
In your posts I see that you regularly use the backquote character (`) instead of the correct apostrophe character ('). It's somewhat distracting, particularly in this post.
