Prob of touching is 53.5 and prob of exp is 27.5 (jan 1300 calls) so hopefully this coming week there will be a pull back...its a battleground right now between theta and the gods...the more I think about it.... the more I think the positive move has been over done. The negative('s )macro-economically have not been erased. There is still death in the middle east and high oil and a big credit card bill to pay!
SPX Credit Spread Trader
- Thread starter El OchoCinco
- Start date
I'm not sure what you mean by that....... to me, if it reverses down then it's staying in the channel, if it keeps going up it's broken out of the channel... What is the perspective... kindly explain.
Quote from zman7854:
That chart puts things into perspective a little bit doesnt it...thks for the post.
Now... I looked at that chart and like a picture that is hanging out of balance the upper line looked not quite parallel to the lower line...therefore a) its not a true channel or b) we will get higher ...like around 1300 to form a more parallel line...
I guess thats why I'm not good at TA......
I guess thats why I'm not good at TA......
Donna, is it just me or is everyone ignoring the gigantic amount of credit the consumer has undertaken...I don't know why this is being ignored?? joe consumer can only borrow from visa to pay mastercard so many times, they have got to be tapped out sooner or later, what am I missing here? Financial institutions see something on the horizon with the advent of the new bankruptcy laws. At this point in time, seems like millions are just living to pay bills and have zero to negative net savings and a string of fed rate hikes could prove fatal.
Quote from zman7854:
Donna, is it just me or is everyone ignoring the gigantic amount of credit the consumer has undertaken...I don't know why this is being ignored?? joe consumer can only borrow from visa to pay mastercard so many times, they have got to be tapped out sooner or later, what am I missing here? Financial institutions see something on the horizon with the advent of the new bankruptcy laws. At this point in time, seems like millions are just living to pay bills and have zero to negative net savings and a string of fed rate hikes could prove fatal.
Check out the data: the net worth of Americans is at an all-time high (stocks, real estate, etc). People do not necessarily save from their paychecks into passbook savings, but debt is manageable and generally at still relatively low interest rates. We are definitely not a country short on capital.
As for string of rate hikes, think of 1995: rampant pessimism because of the rate hikes of 1994. Go back to the charts to see what happened to the market that year.
I'd be careful about selling those call credit spreads.
My view is that those people who could only afford to pay the 2% minimum were overextended already and should not have taken on the debt. So the increase to 4% will affect those already in real dire straights and will not negatively affect the average consumer. The bankruptcies that result from a simple 2% increase in average minimum payment will be negligible. More serious threats might be housing and unemployment. Housing will simply slow its growth but not collapse in the coming year and unemployment is still at a great number relatively speaking, enough to possible slow down rate hikes.
I think for a few months the market will continue to push higher on lack of bad news and thus I want to stay well out of its way and make money on the put side, but deep OTM so that if the other shoe drops, I am far enough away to simple get out with at worst a small limited loss.
The daily chart I showed indicates a breakout of the channel while the weekly chart shows it hitting the upper line of the wedge. What this means is that a pullback is likely but merely a profit-taking one. Do not be surprised if we then re group and push on h igher, since on the daily charts we do have a new support level at the upper channel line which is where it will likely pull back to and then we can see what happens next.
I think for a few months the market will continue to push higher on lack of bad news and thus I want to stay well out of its way and make money on the put side, but deep OTM so that if the other shoe drops, I am far enough away to simple get out with at worst a small limited loss.
The daily chart I showed indicates a breakout of the channel while the weekly chart shows it hitting the upper line of the wedge. What this means is that a pullback is likely but merely a profit-taking one. Do not be surprised if we then re group and push on h igher, since on the daily charts we do have a new support level at the upper channel line which is where it will likely pull back to and then we can see what happens next.